The provocative article by Mark Lynas in The Financial Review of May 28 “Maybe not the day after tomorrow but . . .” contains some extremely serious scientific errors, the first of which was to attribute the Permian Extinction to global warming. This is utter nonsense
That extinction occurred as the result of a meteorite hitting the earth near the north coast of Australia – and that catastrophic event then triggered off the volcanism and the ensuing climatic catastrophe. Was it due to global warming? Of course it wasn't – but to link that extinction with the fallacy of global warming is totally absurd – in fact it is dishonest.
The K-T extinction 65 million years ago was also caused by a meteorite hitting the earth – and presumably it would also have produced a climatic catastrophe similar to the Permian event.
What Lynas does not tell you is that CO2 levels in the past, especially since the last 400,000 years have fluctuated, but interestingly the CO2 increased AFTER the temperatures rose, and each temperature and CO2 rise was then followed by a period of cooling and an ice age. On this basis one could predict that we might be entering into another ice age, but in reality we are actually getting out of the more recent mini-ice age of 1500.
What Lynas omits to tell you is that while CO2 has risen to 378 Parts per Million by volume in the earth's atmosphere, this increased has been measured as a continuous rise (see the various web sites) but which has not accompanied a similar rise in temperature. In fact data I posted on Bizarre Science recently showed that for the weather stations in urban and suburban areas showed no rise in temperature for the last 50 years, and while a rise in rural temperatures were measured, we now know that this is a data artefact from poor sampling support, closing of stations, and a bias towards urban stations. One could almost state with certainty that the earth's temperature seems not to have any relationship with CO2 quantities.
What Lynas also omits to tell you is that CO2 accounts for only 0.33% by volume of the earth's atmosphere, of which about 5% is attributable to human with the rest due to nature itself. Just how such minute amounts of CO2 can affect the earth's temperature is not demonstrated. In fact the temperatures recorded by the satellites since 1979 have not shown any warming or cooling in the atmosphere, as the Climate theory predicts. And this fact is now being duplicated in the land temperature data. In short all the climate predictions made by the doomsayers have not come to pass. All the climate models so far have been proven false in their predictions.
Another well publicised graph which the IPCC uses to justify its stance on Global Warming is the famous Mann Hockey Stick graph – but this graph is a fraud because it is a clear case of mixing apples and oranges – in fact it is worse than this as it combines temperature proxy data, land temperature measurements and temperature projections, all in one graph. This is scientifically incompetent.
McKitrick and Michaels have published a recent paper in Climate Science on 22 May 2004, the abstract of which states - "Monthly surface temperature records from 1979 to 2000 were obtained from 218 individual stations in 93 countries and a linear trend coefficient determined for each site. This vector of trends was regressed on measures of local climate, as well as indicators of local economic activity (income, gross domestic product [GDP] growth rates, coal use) and data quality. The spatial pattern of trends is shown to be significantly correlated with non-climatic factors, including economic activity and sociopolitical characteristics of the region. The analysis is then repeated on the corresponding Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gridded data, and very similar correlations appear, despite previous attempts to remove non-climatic effects. The socioeconomic effects in the data are shown to add up to a net warming bias, although more precise estimation of its magnitude will require further research."
It is now known that during the late 14th and early 15th Century, the earth passed into a meteorite stream of which some impacted between Australia and New Zealand. From New Zealand two arguments come: first we have the Maori legends that, several centuries ago, fire came from the sky, burned most of the forests and killed the Moa birds (the Maori adamantly reject western scholars' opinion that over-hunting was the reason for the Moas' disappearance). Secondly there is the recent finding of a number of shallow and definitely very recent impact craters, named the Tapanui craters, in the South Island. Additionally, layers of soot, datable to the cratering time, have been detected in several places. The Tapanui craters and the presence of soot can be taken as a confirmation that 'fire' came from the sky, burned the forests and killed the Moas, as the Maori legends state. The time of the event has been estimated at c. 800 years ago.
Professor Edward Bryant of Wollongong University in his book “Tsunami – the Underrated Hazard” showed that this meteorite also created a large Tsunami which affected the east coast of Australia, and as Menzies notes in his book 1421, also destroyed one of the Chinese fleets near New Zealand. It is conceivable that this catastrophe, which was restricted to the Pacific Basin, also played a significant role in ending the Ming Dynasty in China, and allowed the Europeans to get the upper hand in the far east.
At around circa 1422 – we now know that the Ming Dynasty Chinese fleets circumnavigated the earth, and also Greenland – and there are at least 20 separate reports that the Chinese reached the North Pole by ship. Inspection of a chart known as the Waldseemuller Map, dated 1507 AD on which the northern coastline of Siberia from Finland to Alaska – and as we know the Russians only started exploring these lands some centuries afterwards, we must conclude that the Chinese Fleets also mapped this coast in the early 1400's. We also know it was very warm at that time because Greenland was far more hospitable then as it was now – in fact Greenland experienced a mini-ice age since 1430. Those times were known as the Medieval Warming period where temperatures were higher than they were now.
"Contemporary accounts of the wedding of Sigrid Bjornsdottir in 1408 ... paint a very different picture "of Greenland. "She possessed substantial flocks of sheep and cattle", and "The church in which Sigrid was married still stands in a bleak and splendid isolation above the dark fjord." (Menzies, 1421 p.349.)
Evidence for the abrupt climate change prior to the mini ice age in the 1430's is supplied by the type of flies found during excavation of the floors of the houses she and her family and retainers lived. Those that inhabit warm houses disappeared and were replaced by those that can live in cold empty houses and rotting flesh of the dead. Menzies has corroborating evidence, detailed in his post script, that the summers of 1422 to 1428 were exceptionally warm
These records show changes in the conduct of Greenland trade over time. According to the late 11th century Historian Norvegiae (History of Norway), profits from the Greenland trade were of much interest to the Catholic church in Nidaros (Trondheim), but the proprietors were independent merchants--Greenlanders, Icelanders, or Norwegians-who braved the seas and could trade with whomever they liked. But by the 12th century few Greenlanders owned ocean-going vessels; their few remaining boats were dedicated to walrus hunting in the Nordsetur hunting grounds.
In 1261, Greenland formally joined the Norwegian kingdom, thereby losing their ability to trade independently. This business fell to specialized trading monopolies based in the Norwegian king's trading port in Bergen, where trade goods could be stored safely under the king's protection, in return, of course, for a heavy king's tax.
Other historical records from the 14th century foreshadow the extinction of the Greenland colonies. A letter to Pope Alexander VI suggested a ship should be sent to Greenland, since, "because of the very infrequent sailings which were wont to be made to the aforesaid country due to the severe freezing of the seas, no ship is believed to have put in to land there for eighty years." This lack of interest in maintaining trade contacts with Greenland might have been spurred by the traumatic political conditions caused by the Black Death of A.D. 1348 and other plagues and famines.
Another sign of collapse comes from the Description of Greenland, a report written by Ivar Bardarson for the bishop of Bergen, describing conditions he observed sometime between A.D. 1341-60. In addition to inventorying Church property in the Eastern Settlement, he visited the Western Settlement, noting "now the Skraeling have [destroyed] the whole of the Western Settlement. There are only horses, goats, cattle, and sheep all wild, but no inhabitants, neither Christian nor Heathen." Bardarson's comment is the most explicit historical statement on the cause of the extinction of the Western Settlement, but his statement has not been confirmed.
While Bardarson's account is used to date the extinction of the Western, another historic event fixes the probable end date for the larger Eastern Settlement. A Christian wedding between Sigrid Bjornsdottir and Thorstein Olafsson at the Hvalsey Church in the Eastern Settlement in A.D. 1408 was recorded in Iceland a few years later. This is the last historical word from Norse Greenland. Historians believe that it is likely the Eastern Settlement
Greenland now is mainly covered by ice but in Sigrid Bjornsdottir time – it was a far more pleasant place to live. Why do Lynas and his cohorts ignore this factual data?
Lynas then raises the issue of the latest Hollywood Film, “The Day after Tomorrow” one which describes what happens when global warming causes polar ice caps to melt – stopping the gulf stream and thus a climatic catastrophe.
The film is scientific nonsense.
In order to stop the gulf Stream one also needs to stop the wind and the earth from rotating – and clearly this does not happen. The film has been resolutely condemned by scientists, but the propaganda for it is so scientifically appalling that one has to wonder what is going on. For example the MoveOn.Org site, a political organisation funded by George Soros, put out a flyer for the US memorial release of the film that the Glaciers on the North Pole are melting – except for the inconvenient fact that there are no glaciers at the north pole.
Lynas then refers to a report from the Pentagon but omits to tell you that this report was a case study of a hypothetical “What-If” scenario which all governments commission. The report was written FOR the Pentagon, not BY the Pentagon.
Lynas states “It must be emphasised that, while scientists are now virtually unanimous about the reality of man-made global warming” but omits to tell you that this is false. Signatories to the Leipzig Declaration, The Heidelberg Appeal, and the Oregon Petition (over 17,000 scientists) all oppose the global warming theory. There is no universal agreement on global warming.
The issue is one of climate change, and as we have seen above, the earth is getting out of a recent mini-ice age – Greenland is still in the grips of this climate change – but the Chinese were navigating to the North Pole 800 years ago. And sudden climatic changes do not occur unless there are catastrophic causations – and the most recent sudden climatic change occurred in the 15th Century as the result of the earth being hit by some small meteorites in the Pacific Basin. This seemed to have caused the volcanic eruptions and a severe cooling of the earth, creating the mini-ice age which are are now coming out of. This catastrophe killed off the Moas, and greatly affected every one living in and around the Pacific Basin. The evidence is there so why is it being ignored?
Labohm writing in Tech Central Station “On the part of pure science these views are supported by Professor Kirill Kondratyev of the Research Center for Ecological Studies in St. Petersburg. He claims that the "science behind the Kyoto Protocol is still highly uncertain, and reducing greenhouse gases will have little or no impact on climate change." This point of view was also reflected in a recent report by the Russian Academy of Sciences that stated that the Kyoto Protocol has no scientific basis and puts the Russian economy at risk.”
There is a political game in play – Kyoto has one goal - to force the US to cut its so called greenhouse emissions as a means of emasculating its economy.
"The answer to global warming is in the abolition of private property and production for human need. A socialist world would place an enormous priority an alternative energy sources. This is what ecologically-minded socialists have been exploring for quite some time now." -Louis Proyect, Columbia University, or
“No matter if the science is all phony, there are collateral environmental benefits…. climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world." Christine Stewart, Canadian Environment Minister, Calgary Herald, December 14, 1998.
As for the predictions of Lynas and his cohorts – look at these made some years ago:
* "In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish." Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970
* "Five years is all we have left if we are going to preserve any kind of quality in the world." Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970
* "In a decade, America's mighty rivers will have reached the boiling point." Edwin Newman, Earth Day 1970.
Lynas' scare of climatic catastrophe is in the same league – the Permian Extinction was caused by the impact of a meteorite, as was the minor extinction of the Moas 800 years ago, and which culminated in the mini-ice age.
We are not headed for a climatic catastrophe due to man-made creation of greenhouse gases because, as the data shows, temperatures are not rising. Rather the catastrophe is being politically engineered as an attempt to destroy America's economy, because if Kyoto is taken to its logical conclusion, that is what will happen.
We must not forget that the Greens have one goal in mind – to reduce the earth's population and to destroy capitalism. This is what global warming is all about.