Henry, 28/5.  Despite continuing to lag in the polls, until recently the Coalition had remained almost even with the ALP according to the bookies.  Not anymore.

The average odds (from the five main bookies – Centrebet, IASBet, SportingBet, SportsBet and SportsAcumen) for the Coalition is around $2.20 and 1.71 for ALP.

That places the odd of a Coalition win at around 45%.

Henry, 10/5.  Like the commentariat, the major bookies have swung back towards the Coalition in the betting market since the budget. 

At this stage, Centrebet and IASBet odds are unavailable.  However, SportingBet has moved in Howard’s favor immediately post Budget, offering $1.85 each way. SportsBet has also moved Howard’s way, offering $1.85 for Labor and $1.90 for the Coalition. On the other hand, SportsAcument has moved in Rudd’s favour. It is offering $1.77 for a Labor win and $1.95 for a Coalition win.

Henry, 3/5.  The Labor Party has continued to gain in the eyes of the bookies in recent monhs, with an average of the five major bookies (Centrebet, IASBet, SportingBet, SportsBet and SportsAcumen) placing the odds at about 53-47 Labor’s way.

21/3/07.  What a difference a few months makes!  Henry's usual betting correspondant is still out to lunch so we quote one of Henry's favourite journos.

George Megalogenis writes today:  "Imagine the nation's political future as a choice between pairings - the Labor double of Labor Premier Morris Iemma winning in NSW on Saturday and Kevin Rudd later this year versus the incumbent double of Iemma and Howard. Yesterday, Centrebet had the Labor double as favourite for the first time, paying $1.90 for a $1 wager. The incumbent double was the outsider at $2.

"Last December, when Rudd became federal Opposition Leader, Centrebet had the odds reversed - the Labor double was priced at $3.75 against $1.90 for the incumbent double".

Henry's Bets Friend, 24/1/07.  There has been a big shift in the betting in the wake of Labor's 10 point plus lead in all the recent opinion polls.  According to Centrebet, Labor is an even $2.00 while the Coalition is out to $1.72.  Allowing for bookies margins, that's about a 53% chance for the Coalition while Labor is considered a 47% chance.  That's almost toss of the coin odds.

A month ago, in the wake of the Rudd challenge or rather Beazley capitulation, you could have got $2.75 on Labor while the Coalition was not quite bank interest rate (maybe stock market growth) at $1.35.

Clearly, there is a flow of money for the Rudd led Labor Party.  It looks more than a honeymoon for Rudd. 

If the CPI on Wednesday is the harbinger of a further interest rate hike - which will take official rates to their highest level since 1996 - the $2.00 for Rudd could be the easiest 100% return around.

Henry, 5/12/06.  Henry recently read a brilliant book - The Wisdom of Crowds, by James Surowiecki.  Surowiecki asserts "Polling is, relatively speaking, accurate." (P 21) But, shortly after: "The IEM [Iowa Electronic Market] has generally outperformed the major national polls, and has been more accurate than them even months in advance". (PP 22 - 23)  This actually accords with Henry's memory of how it was in Australia at the time of the last Federal election.

So we have decided to keep readers aware of the state of the betting on the forthcoming Australian Federal election, thanks to a reader and Goldmember who wishes to write as "Henry's Bets Friend".  His first report is below. (25/7/06)

Henry's Bets Friend, 5/12.  Some interesting election betting swings and roundabouts in the past week and a bit, where in net terms, the Coalition is now seen to be more likely to win. the next election than it was 2 weeks ago. 

Around 2 weeks ago, when the ALP infighting and spoiling became apparant, the Coalition firmed in the betting from $1.57 to $1.50.  Then late last week, Bomber Beazley dropped his load calling for the leadship spill and the Coalition got into $1.40 with the ALP blowing out to $2.75.  "Disunity is death" seemed to dominate betting trends.

In the hours after the election of Big Kev, the man chosen as the Rudder of the Good Ship Labor, there was a flurry of money on the ALP to the point where we now have the Coalition at $1.50 and Labor at $2.50. 

In net terms, everyone can see that the smart money has Labor less likely to win now with Kevin Rudd than was the case under a unified team led by Kim Beazley. 

It will be interesting to see if the turkeys in the Labor Party that made the push for change realise this.  The roosters are no doubt aware which makes the Coalition's odds of $1.50 pretty attractive.  Where else can you get a 50% tax free return over a 10 or 11 month term?

Henry's Bets Friend, 29/9.  While the polls continue to show the ALP in a very competitive position to win the 2007, the punters are firmly placed for a return of the Coalition.  According to Centrebet, the Coalition is $1.57 with Labor at $2.25.  For those with strong convictions, either way, there is a nice tax-free return on offer.  With still a year to go to polling day, the betting has been slow, with more small bets on Labor more or less offset by fewer, but larger, wagers on the Coalition.

Henry's Bets Friend, 4/9.   Libs 1.57 and Labor $2.25.  No change for several weeks, and practically no change since late July.

Labor are at $1.03 to win in Queensland on Saturday, with the rest around $9.00.  Good potential tax free gain for the true believers!

Henry's Bets Friend, 25/7.  The froth and bubble over Liberal Party leadership, interest rate increases and the new IR laws has not had a significant impact on the betting for the 2007 election.

Over the last few weeks, Centrebet's odds have been remarkably stable:  the Coalition is currently $1.60 to win the next election, while Labor is $2.20.  There has been an odd tilt back and forth but basically, the Coalition is about a 60:40 proposition to win in 2007. 

The big money, apparently, is yet to flow with 15 months of noise and events still to be factored in.

Our reading suggests the 60% tax free return on a Coalition victory is value unless the wheels fall off the economy.  That is a big "unless" with the RBA set to lift interest rates for a seventh straight time next week.