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Henry Thornton - Economics: A discussion of economic, social and political issues On Australia`s monetary policy - February 2007 - May 2013 Date 10/05/2013
Member rating 4.3/5
Australia's monetary reform needs a revamp, and Australia badly needs bold economic reform.
By Henry Thornton Email / Print

 Date                             Theme                                                   Outcome


May 2013               The RBA's acute dilemma                      25 basis point cut


April 2013              High dollar strangling industry                No change


March 2013                Dollar overvalued, etc                          No change


February 2013   Coping with the coming global crunch        No change


January 2013            Monetary policy revamp             Usual lofty silence


December 2012         The currency wars (between meetings)


December 2012          Christmas Rate cut                                 25 pnt cut


November 2012         RBA should do its bit                             No change!


October 2012          Three strikes for a rate cut                       25 pnt cut


September 2012      Q&A at the RBA                                        No change


August 2012            Serious reforms needed                              No change


July 2012                 Iron clad case to sit tight ...                        No change


June 2012              Rate cut needed, structural reform vital     25 pnt cut


May 18 2012          Professor McKibbin sounds warning   Decision 5 June


May 2012               Firm grip among the uncertainties      50 basis pnt cut


April 24 2012         ABS delivers for rate doves                  Decision 1 May


April 2012              RBA should resist siren calls                     No change


March 2012           Comfortable RBA will not cut                   No change


February 2012        Monetary policy in the fog                      No change


December 2011   The mining boom and monetary policy   25 basis pnt cut


November 2011      Rate cut would be foolish mistake       25 basis pnt cut


October 2011          'Danger zone' for global economy             No change


September 2011      Defending Australia's Manufacturing       No change


August 2011            Carbon tax to stoke stagflation                 No change


July 2011                 Reform, not RBA fiddling                          No change


June 2011              Mining boom, non-mining recession            No change


May 2011       Inflation exceeds expectations ... again, and ...   No change


April 2011         Wage Inflation sharpens RBA dilemma           No change


March 2011       Global inflation to frustrate RBA                    No change


February 2011           RBA to sit pat                                           No change


December 2010         In accord with a former critic                  No change


November 2010         Go now, Glenn Stevens                     25 basis point hike


October 2010            Time's a wastin'                                          No change


September 2010         Should tighten now, but will not                 No change


August 2010       Rates on hold despite geopolitical uncertainties No change


July 2010                       Time for caution                                      No change


June  2010                    Monetary policy dilemmas                  Pause in rate hikes


May 2010                      Keep 'normalising' briskly, Glenn Stevens     25 basis point hike 


15 April 2010            Growth exceeding predictions = inflation,      (Between meetings)


'Inflation is the inevitable consequence of growth exceeding predictions.  This is because the necessary tightening of monetary policy is too little, too late'.


7 April 2010                 Goldilocks or big bad father bear, 7 April 2010           NO MEETING


'Glenn Stevens' problem is that he will be the fall guy if we all get mauled by the big bad bear.  His only defence is to begin some public straight talk on the remedies beyond measured and cautious rate hikes'.


April 2010          Keep tightening, RBA, both the MOU and the Act requires this.  25 basis point hike


'Nowadays Australia has an ‘independent’ central bank with a mandate to keep ‘underlying’ consumer inflation in the range if 2 to 3 % while paying some attention to asset inflation (we are recently told) as well as the state of the economy.  Then there is the Reserve Bank Act, which says that the duty of the Reserve Bank Board, ‘within the limits of its powers’ [nice caveat that] to ensure that the monetary and banking policy of the Bank is ‘directed to the greatest advantage of the people of Australia and that the powers of the Bank under this Act … are exercised in such a manner as, in the opinion of the Reserve Bank Board, will best contribute to: (a)  the stability of the currency of Australia;  (b)  the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and  (c)  the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia’.'


March 4 2010         Flexible inflation targeting unzipped               (Between meetings)


March 2010          Back to normal asap                                        25 basis point hike


'With unemployment falling, business investment rising, retail sales growing above a sustainable rate, house prices inflation building and government still throwing money at problems of its own making, the Reserve must get cash rates back to normal asap'.


February 3 2010      We was wrong, or were we?                         (Between meetings)


'The big risk is the withdrawal of WorkChoices which facilitates the spread of the renewed boom in the resource states and industries'.


 February 2010     Reserve to move but danger looms                 No change


'The reality facing the Reserve Bank is that inflation is too high for comfort as economic recovery gathers strength'.


December 2009    Glenn Stevens no Grinch                                 25 basis point increase


November 2009    Inflation, asset bubbles and financial reform     25 basis points increase


                            Graph: True inflation, underlying CPI inflation and cash rates


October 16 2009       Rethinking monetary policy                    (Between meetings)


'Congratulations, Glenn Stevens, for preparing us for bold rate hikes'.  (Press article)


October 2009        Monetary policy and asset inflation              25 basis point rise, 'bullish signal'


                              Graph: True inflation, underlying CPI inflation and cash rates


September 2009     Reserve should hold rates - for now             No change  
 
'The Reserve Bank is unlikely to raise interest rates today, but if current trends persist the time when it does cannot be too far away'.


August 12, 2009   The dangers of inflation targeting                 RBA agrees, sort of - Compare April 2008


August 2009          Recovery Risks                                         No change


                             Graph: inflation and inflation expectations


July 2009               Bipolar economy with jobs crisis                No change


June 2009              Calm after the storm                                   No change


May 2009              Green shoots of recovery                           No change


April 2009            Cut rates again RBA, then rest awhile     25 basis point cut


March 2009           RBA should pause to reflect                      No change


March 2 2009        Après moi le deluge!                                 NO MEETING


                             'In every stock-jobbing swindle every one knows that some time or other the crash must come ...'


February 2009       Policies for recovery                            100 basis point cut


                              Graph: cash rates in USA, UK, China and Australia


December 2008     Remember the main game                   100 basis points cut


                             Graph: Inflation and inflationary expectations


November 2008     US recession, more rate cuts here      75 basis point cut


                              Graph: US and Australian consumer confidence


October 2008         Unlocking financial gridlock               100 basis point cut


                               Graph: Official and market cash rates


September 2008     RBA to ease the squeeze                    25 basis point cut


                              Graph: Bill rates and business turning points


August 2008           Baseball bat economics                     Thundering silence


August 2008          Hoping for the best                            No change - but bias to ease


                             Graph: Goods and service inflation and asset inflation/deflation


July 2008              Global inflation conundrum                 Thundering silence


July 2008              New policy framework                      Thundering silence


July 2008               Stevens enforces flexibility                No change


                             Graph: Inflation and inflationary expectations 1958 to 2008


July 2008             BIS bombshell                                Thundering silence


June 2008             Inflation slips the "anchor"               No change


                             Graph: US and Australian consumer inflation


May 2008             Wages the worry                            No change


                             Graph: Exchange rate and commodity prices


April 2008           Is inflation targeting dead?                'Seriously misguided' says Treasury head


April 2008            The Goldilocks economy                No change


                             Graph: Australia's CAD, Net overseas debt


March 2008         Inflation - serious illness...              25 basis point hike


                            Graph: US, China, Australian inflation


February 2008    RBA - must act now                        25 basis point hike


                            Graph: M3 growth and inflation - Australia


December 2007  RBA won't play Scrooge this Christmas   No change


                             Graph: Bond yields - Australia vrs USA


November 2007  Monetary policy playing catch-up     25 basis point hike


                             Graph: Australian inflation - CPI, Core, Expectations


October 2007       The great money and credit boom    No change


                              Graph: Bank bills and official cash - Australia


September 2007    Brave RBA should raise rates         No change


                              Graph: Currency - $A and $US


August 2007          Brace for a rate hike - unless...       25 basis point hike


                              Graph: RBA Cash and ASX 200


July 2007              The party`s over                                 No change


                             Graph: M3 growth Vrs Inflation - Australia


June 2007             Asset inflation conundrum                   No change


                             Graph: Asset and consumer prices - Australia


May 2007             New Economy, New Gameplan          No change


                              Graph: Australian inflation - CPI, Core, Expectations


April 2007            Hawks vs. Doves at the Reserve          No change


                             Graph: Aussie dollar and inflation


March 2007          Reserve Bank happiness                      No change


                             Graph: RBA happiness vrs Cash rate


February 2007       Minimising misery                               No change


                              Graph: Misery index - Australia


Earlier items in this series - from June 2002 to December 2006 - are linked here.

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