Abbott attacks Rudd's illegal immigration policy, 31/12.

Tony Abbott today attacked the Rudd government for allowing illegal immigrants into AUstralia as asylum seekers.

Mr. Abbott accused Kevin Rudd of lacking the toughness to send back immigrants that illegally enter Australian territory via people smugglers.

The Australian reports, 'As authorities intercepted another refugee boat - the 59th this year - the Opposition Leader said asylum-seekers must know what a risky business it was coming to Australia by boat.

Mr Abbott attacked the Prime Minister over his lack of "steel" in handling the issue.

"If the circumstances permit it, you've got to be prepared to turn boats around," Mr Abbott told The Australian yesterday. "John Howard was fiercely criticised for this. Nevertheless, Kevin Rudd said he would be more than tough enough to turn boats around were he prime minister, but he singularly failed to show any steel whatsoever since becoming our leader."

The Opposition Leader's comments were accompanied by a fresh broadside against the Rudd government's proposed emissions trading system. Mr Abbott challenged Mr Rudd to release Treasury modelling on who would be worse off under the scheme.'

Illegal immigration and border security dominated the 2001 election and may return as important issues next year.

Australia should continue to accept legal immigrants, but it must protect its borders from illegal aliens.

The federal government should shut down all detention centres and return illegal immigrants to their home countries.

ETS debate continues, 30/12.

Peter Garrett has promised the federal government will compensate the majority of Australians if Labor's proposed ETS increases living costs.

And, in some cases, Australians may actually profit from government compensation.

The Australian reports, 'Environment Minister Peter Garrett released some details from modelling assessing the scheme's impact on low-income households in an effort to neutralise public concern fanned by Tony Abbott.

Mr Garrett said the scheme would raise the average cost of living for low-income households by $420 a year, while their compensation would add up to $610.

In addition to the average $190 gains for low-income households, 97 per cent of middle-income households would receive at least some form of direct cash assistance and half of them would be fully compensated.'

However, Liberal leader Tony Abbott maintains the ETS will incur a massive net cost to Australians.

'The government has been forced on the defensive by the Opposition Leader's assault on the ETS. As Mr Abbott said on a Sydney radio station just before Christmas: "There is a real people power revolt against this big new tax and it is being led, in many cases, not by traditional Liberals but by traditional Labor voters -- blue-collar workers in industries like coal mining who know their jobs will be much less safe if Mr Rudd has his way and brings this in."'

The climate change debate is clearly not over, and it seems the ETS will be one of the most important issues in next year's federal election.

South Australia becomes highest taxing state, 29/12.

South Australia is now the highest taxing state according to a new IPA report.

Western Australia remains the most tax friendly state followed by Victoria, Queensland, New South Wales and lastly South Australia.

The difference between the highest and lowest taxing states is significant - Western Australia is 5% below the state average, whilst South Australia is 5% above it.

The IPA report argued more state based tax cuts would only help the Australian economy.

'"A number of studies have also suggested that state taxes, in particular payroll tax, may discourage some firms from expanding their size," Ms Novak added.

"Transaction-based business taxes at the state level with relatively low thresholds disproportionately affect smaller businesses.

"This affects their capacity to acquire capital, labour and materials to expand.

"At the other end of the scale, larger businesses are also adversely affected by state business taxation," she said.

"In general terms, larger businesses tend to employ large numbers of people and invest significant amounts of capital in an attempt to exploit economies of scale and scope.

"State taxes can have often deleterious consequences, at least at the margin, for further expansion of existing firms."'

Click here for the Australian's full report.

Revolt of the slaves, 17/12.

Whether the RBA's three rate hikes in a row proves that it is fighting the excessive generosity of fiscal policy must remain unresolved for now.

Plenty of ammunition for a newly militant Liberal Party in that issue.

Henry greatly enjoyed 'Spartacus leads grassroots revolt' by John Howard's former Chief-of-Staff, Arthur Sinodinos.

'TONY Abbott is the Spartacus of Australian politics. No longer content to be slaves in Kevin Rudd's victory procession, the Liberal heartland has found its Spartacus and revolted. Most Liberals feel energised by the leadership change and dare to dream of winning the next election. So far the polls have not moved but that gives Abbott plenty of runway. It is unlikely that people have made up their minds about him.

'He knows that the odds are against him winning so early in the life of a new government. The key to Abbott's approach is that he is a guerilla fighter. The phrase loyal opposition is to him an oxymoron. No quarter will be given and none is expected'.

Assuming, as now looks likely, that the Copenhagen conference provides a disappointing outcome for climate change worriers, and Kevin Rudd in particular, there will be plenty of fresh ammunition for Tony Abbott.

Bring on the chariot race!

Rudd peddling 'bullshit', says Abbott, 16/12.

The ETS is just a great big new tax which in practice disguises an old-fashioned Labor-style attempt to redistribute wealth to the poor.

Henry noticed with wry amusement that someone from a less developed part of the world asserted in Copenhagen that Mr Rudd is a secret climate change skeptic. Henry is not privy to said underdeveloped nation leader's thought processes, but it is a charge he has made also, given the great number of exemptions and special deals that have been built into Australia's ETS.  'Giant welfare churn' would be a better label, but 'tax' has fewer letters and is more likely to be a barbeque stopper over the festive season.

In a speech to be delivered in Sydney this morning, Mr Abbott will declare himself  "John Howard's heir, not his clone" as he gives voters their first detailed glimpse at his electoral posture.  He said last night: "Bring it on. We will be ready for you", which is a fair enough summary.

He will use the speech 'to hammer Mr Rudd for producing little in two years beyond extra trade union power and his rejected Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme'.

John Roskam writes, with an air of mild suprise: 'In the weeks before Malcolm Turnbull's downfall, the Australian public was treated to a strange and unusual spectacle. Almost to a person, the national media was urging the Liberals to make a "popular" decision and agree to Kevin Rudd's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). For a while it seemed as though the only test of good policy was whether it was popular with voters.

It's not difficult to fathom why the press gallery stressed the popularity of an ETS as they barracked for the Liberals to pass the scheme. It was a happy coincidence that a policy many journalists personally believed in, namely reducing carbon emissions, appeared to also be popular with the public. And when it became obvious that Rudd wouldn't succeed in his ambition to go to Copenhagen with parliamentary approval of his scheme, the sense of disappointment from commentators was palpable.

Abbott peddling "bullshit" asserts Turnbull, 7/12. 

 'Former Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has delivered an extraordinary attack on Tony Abbott, describing the central plank of his successor's response to climate change as "bullshit" and saying the party could not be trusted.

'In a blog posted on his website this morning, Mr Turnbull has delivered what he describes as "a few home truths" about the "farce" that the Coalition's climate change policy has become'.

Mr Abbott observed that his opponant was Kevin Rudd.

Henry observed that John Howard did not engage in similar comment when he lost the leadership - twice as it happened.

All change, 5/12.

Paul Kelly summarises a momentous week in Australian politics.

'THIS week Tony Abbott smashed the mould of Australian politics. With the opposition divided and behind, he is forcing Kevin Rudd to an election on climate change, the issue that is supposedly owned by the Labor Party. This is either brilliance or sheer folly.

'Abbott does not accept the orthodoxies that have governed politics during the Rudd ascendancy, and this makes him dangerous for both Labor and Liberal. Abbott is an unpredictable and elemental force who defies the modern political rule book. No adviser can tell Abbott what to say or how to say it.

'After being elected Liberal leader by surprise, Abbott spent the rest of week throwing political grenades -- supporting individual workplace contracts, backing a nuclear power debate and killing the emissions trading scheme -- while his colleagues held their breath wondering how the public would react'.

Magic pudding politics, 3/12.

No new tax, not even a 'an upfront and straightforward tax like a carbon tax' Tony Abbott said yesterday, even ruling out a revenue neutral carbon tax with offsetting cuts to income tax and company tax.

Instead: 'Tony Abbott plans to fight a climate change election using land management and energy efficiency measures to slash greenhouse emissions instead of an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax'.

Is this 'policy on the run' likely to be effective?  One of Henry's rules is that, if a policy does not hurt a fair number of people it is unlikely to have any effect.  This was the ultimate judgment on the ETS.

But, as the Senate yesterday buried Kevin Rudd's proposed carbon emissions trading scheme, 'the new Opposition Leader said his alternative means of reducing emissions would meet the same targets for sharp reductions in emissions proposed by Labor'.

More here in Henry's blog today.  

Death of the ETS, 2/12.

The change in the Liberal Party leadership, the return of 'conservative' Liberal leadership as embodied in the person of Tony Abbott and the Senate vote at noon today against the ETS legislation is perhaps the most dramatic change in the Australian political scene since the dismissal of the Whitlam government in 1975.

Henry wishes Tony Abbott well.  He holds strong ethical values and he is unusually outspoken and intelligent.  Also, despite acknowledged past errors, Tony Abbott is a hardened and experienced politician.

This surprise ascent may well mean the death of the EST and sets the stage for an ETS election that Rudd's Labor may not survive.

Our attention rightly now turns to the Copenhagen conference. 

Tony Abbott has said that he accepts man has contributed to global warming, but he is uncertain by how much.

This is a sensible position - see, for example, Garth Paltridge's fine book - but the climate science is not going to get more definate by the time the Abbott opposition has to make its next decision on the ETS or other climate change action.

The ETS is very complicated and, because of the number of exemptions and offsets, unlikely to make any quick and strong effect on greenhouse gas emissions.  What is certain, of course, is it will add greatly to the complexity of the tax and welfare system, and the overall burdan of government.

In the aftermath of Copenhagen, we hope there will be credible emission targets and commitments.  We also hope that new policies will be under consideration.

A direct carbon tax - offset by cuts to income and company tax, after some of the money raised is spent promoting rersearch on new low carbon energy generation - would be more honest, direct and understandable.  Warwick McKibbin's cap and collar plan, with its attendant 'carbon bank', is more complicated but perhaps technically better than a simple tax.  Tony Abbott has also said he is happy to see a debate about the nuclear option - at last, this has been said in public by a senior politician.

We urge any genuinely objective analyst to lay out the options with pros and cons, winners and losers, and above all likely effectiveness.  We shall be happy to provide space and publicity to any good example of such analysis.

Tony Abbott elected Liberal Leader, 42-41 over Malcolm Turnbull, 1/12.

Former Howard Government minister Tony Abbott has been elected the new leader of the Liberal Party in a dramatic morning of balloting in Canberra. In an extraordinarily close tussle, so-called 'consensus' candidate Joe Hockey was eliminated on the first round of balloting with the vote splittling Abbott - 35, Turnbull - 26 and Hockey - 23.

The second-round between Abbott and Turnbull was even closer with Abbott edging Turnbull out of the leadership by the narrowest margin possible. Abbott - 42, Turnbull - 41, Informal - 1. (Ed: Will we ever know who cast an informal ballot?)

It is unclear what this result - essentially a split down the middle between those in favour of passing the modified ETS - and those opposed to passage of the ETS means for the Liberal Party. Many scenarios are possible, including a Liberal split with a merger of the conservatives with the National Party.

Perhaps the most fantastic would be the creation of a new political party - as unlikely as that may seem, pretty much anything is now on the table.

There was then a secret ballot - called by the new leader - on whether the Liberal Party would oppose the ETS in the Senate.  This was won decisively in the affirmative.

Liberal shootout approaches, 30/11.

Glenn Milne has the most thoughtful from a landslide of commentary.

'THE great irony that lies at the heart of the diabolical political and personal forces pulling at Joe Hockey's heart and head right now is this. Most everyone in the Liberal Party wants him to run and win.

'And therein lies the problem.

'That's not to say, however, that on the other side of politics, Kevin Rudd should be taking any comfort in this destructive drama. Rudd himself might be about to run into serious difficulties himself on the Emissions Trading Scheme which has torn at the soul of the Liberal Party'.

But do not miss 'Malcolm and the Mincer', by Paul Sheehan, with help from Nick Michin and Terry McCrann.

Liberal Party implodes, 28/11.

No-one can predict what happens next, but Henry is reminded of the split in the Labor Party that left Labor in opposition for 23 years, and unfit for office when finally elected in 1972.

The press is full of it today, and the only conclusion is that the Liberals are in deep disarray and disunity.

Plum seats like Kooyong and Higgins have been handed to untested young persons and lifetime supporters from either wing are rethinking their involvement.

The hillbillies from Montana (and the Adelaide hills) are stocking up on beer and ammo, hard at work saving the party by destroying it.

It's over for Turnbull says the OZ, 27/11.

Political editor Dennis Shanahan says: 'MALCOLM Turnbull's leadership has been destroyed in a spectacular and unprecedented fashion.

'For the first time, a grassroots revolt by local Liberal branches and members has brought down the leader of the parliamentary Liberal Party'.

And in conclusion: 'If the ETS passes in the Senate today, the Liberal Party could be led next week by an opponent of the ETS who will want to attack it all the way to the next election'.

And, in late-breaking news, it seems Tony Abbott will challenge Malcolm Turnbull on Monday.

Turnbull survives - for now, 25/11.

Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has survived a leadership spill he called in the wake of ructions in the Liberal Party in response to the passage of the Rudd Government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS).

As Ninemsn reports 'An attempt to force a spill of the Liberal's federal parliamentary party leadership failed by 48 votes to 35 after MPs and senators voted in a secret ballot on Wednesday. The spill vote mirrored the result of Tuesday's coalition joint parties meeting which considered the emissions trading scheme deal negotiated with Labor.

'The Liberal Party clearly remains fractured, a point Mr Turnbull himself concedes. He said there were many in the party who did not share his views about the strategy for tackling climate change. Mr Andrews said the opposition leader would have his support but also refused to rule out whether there would be another attempt to force a spill in the future.'

Despite surviving this challenge, it appears to all and sundry that Turnbull's leadership in the Liberal Party has been mortally wounded, and its probably now only a matter of time before he is replaced as leader. Turnbull's efforts to pass the CPRS may ultimately prove a classic Pyrrhic Victory as though it seems certain that the CPRS will now pass this week, Turnbull's support of the bill has likely resulted in his imminent political downfall.

Climate change - the diabolical issue, 21/11.

Paul Kelly writes: 'THE looming convulsion over climate change is about two questions: how much extra financial compensation the Rudd government offers to win its policy and whether the Liberal Party declares an ideological war against urgent Australian action to mitigate global warming.

'The answers are integral to Malcolm Turnbull's survival as Opposition Leader, Kevin Rudd's 2010 re-election strategy, the integrity of Australia's climate change policies and the future path of politics'.

Read on here.

If we were fair dinkum, we'd have a carbon tax.  

Coalition rift widens, 20/11.

'MALCOLM Turnbull is facing growing shadow cabinet pressure to vote down the government's emissions trading bills, with former minister Tony Abbott abandoning his earlier support for the Opposition Leader's strategy to try to amend and pass the scheme.

'Mr Abbott's shift, and Liberal Senate leader Nick Minchin's strong advocacy of the "vote no" view within the Coalition, will make it harder for Mr Turnbull to persuade his shadow cabinet to support the deal expected to be finalised between the government and the opposition by early next week.

'But opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey remains strongly supportive of Mr Turnbull's strategy and senior Coalition sources insist the shadow cabinet would back a deal that included significant concessions from the government.

'Senator Minchin openly defied his leader's position during the Senate debate yesterday, arguing the bills were an "abomination" and deserved to be rejected for a second time'.

We hate to say 'we told you so', Malcolm, but some months ago, Henry advised you to declare voting on the ETS to be a conscience vote for the coalition.

We also agreed with The Australian a week or so ago (see below), when it suggested an amendment that meant any ETS is automatically cancelled if Copenhagen fails to deliver any definitive agreement.

How to break ETS deadlock, 14/11.

'MALCOLM Turnbull should propose one simple amendment to the government's Emissions Trading Scheme as the sole price of opposition support. It is an amendment that would test the prime minister's good faith, and indeed his sanity.

'Turnbull should propose that unless the Copenhagen climate summit next month delivers mandatory commitments from the US, China, India and Europe to cut carbon dioxide emissions, our ETS legislation self-destructs, it simply ceases to be. Indeed, in practical terms such a commitment only has to come from China'.

Read on here.

Climate change - the struggle continues, 10/11.

Penny Wong and the opposition spokeman, Ian Macfarlane, are negotiating hard.

But last night's Four Corners shows that the real conflict is within the coalition ranks.

Barnaby Joyce is making his name as the farmer's friend and Australia's skeptic-in-chief, but clearly the Liberals are split down the middle on this one.

The only sensible position is for Malcolm Turnbull to declare the climate change legislation to be subject to a conscience vote, though he has nailed his colours to a far tougher mast, to get his party at least to support a modified EST scheme.

Anyone for a decade in opposition, comrades?

Morgan poll sees government hold its position, 9/11.

The latest Morgan Poll taken last weekend, October 31 & November 1, shows the ALP holding a strong two-party preferred lead against the L-NP Opposition. ALP primary support is 51% (down 1%) since the last face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009, L-NP support also fell, down 2% to 32.5%.

Looking at the minor parties shows a rise in support for the Greens, up 2% to 9.5%, Family First, unchanged at 2% and Independents/ Others, up 1% to 5%.

On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 61% (up 0.5%), while support for the L-NP is 39% (down 0.5%). If a Federal Election were held now the Rudd Government would easily retain Government according to the latest Morgan Poll conducted on the October 31 & November 1, 2009

Coalition surges in Newspoll, 3/11.

Newspoll head, Martin O'Shannessy, said the polling turnaround could mark the start of something good for the coalition.

Sky News: 'An opinion poll showing Labor on the nose and the coalition on the up could be the start of a new trend, Newspoll chief executive Martin O'Shannessy says.

The survey, published in The Australian on Tuesday, found Labor fell a huge seven percentage points to 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis compared to a fortnight ago.

'Meanwhile, the coalition clawed back the same margin to 48 per cent.

'In better news for the government, Kevin Rudd was still way ahead of Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull as Australia's preferred prime minister, 63 per cent to 19 per cent.

'Support for Mr Turnbull was steady, while Mr Rudd's numbers fell by two percentage points'.

Asylum seekers, prospect of 35 million people and ETS all test Rudd government, 31/10.

Paul Kelly provides a nice overview for a traveler stranded on the Qantas lounge in Hong Kong, a late arrival having caused Henry to miss his connection to Seoul.

'This week has been decisive in revealing his vision: as a climate change activist Rudd is pledged to a big Australia, a growing role for the national government in urban planning, a strong and orderly immigration program and a tough stand against boatpeople seeking to break the rules and self-select Australia as their new home.

'Each of these principles is integral to Rudd Labor. But they involve exacting and different policy demands and will propel Rudd into the sort of domestic political battles that he has so far avoided'.

The botton line of the immediate crisis is 'Does Rudd have the nerve and patience to prevail or will he crack before the political blackmail of the asylum-seekers and reluctance of local Indonesian authorities?' 

How Australia can get its creaky Federal system to cope with a population of 35 million is obscure to this writer, but there is no doubt it is a big challenge.

And for a more philosophical discussion of the population question, this item from the archives may be of interest.

PM Rudd steps out on world stage with East Asian Summit in Thailand, 26/10.

The Fourth East Asian Summit - which was originally slated to be held in Thaliand a year ago, but which was disrupted and eventually cancelled by organisers after protests in Thaliand related to the country's political crisis in late 2008 - has finally gone ahead in the Thai capital of Bangkok nearly a year later.

The East Asia Summit presently involves the 10 heads of state of the ASEAN Nations as well as the countries known as the "ASEAN Plus Three" - South Korea, Japan and China, and also the additional heads of state of Australia, New Zealand and India that were invited to the expanded grouping at its first leader's summit in 2005 in Malaysia.

As noted by the Associated Press 'Asian leaders, a conference document said, noted that the region has shown signs of recovery from the global crisis and "regained its pace of economic growth."

'"East Asia could therefore play a crucial role in driving global economic recovery and in reforming the international financial architecture," it said, noting that the Asian Development Bank recently revised its forecasts for East Asian economic growth from 3.4 to 3.9 percent this year and 6 to 6.4 percent in 2010.

'The three-day conference included the launch of Southeast Asia's first human rights watchdog, and talks on economic integration of ASEAN by the year 2015, disaster management, climate change and military-ruled Myanmar, an ASEAN member widely criticized internationally for its human rights violations.

'ASEAN countries have haltingly tried to integrate their economies, and are seeking to eliminate trade barriers within the bloc to bring about a European Union-style grouping by 2015.

'"Over the past year we have proved that ASEAN continues to move forward. We have risen to the challenges of the times," Abhisit said, noting regional cooperation in coping with the global economic crisis, swine flu and several natural disasters in the region.'

As the region responsible for much of the world's growth in recent years, and likely to be even more important in the coming years, the East Asia Summit is an important regional meeting for the likes of our globe-trotting Prime Minister to be attending. Our closeness to the Americans, who are not attendees, perhaps does give us a level of clout we would otherwise not have in such a regional setting - alongside steadfast allies such as Japan and South Korea that are also in attendance.

Nelson and Costello resign from Federal Parliament - yes finally, 19/10.

It seems the drawn-out saga of Peter Costello's goodbye from Federal politics has finally reached its denouement with the Federal members for Higgins and Bradfield handing in their resignations from Parliament to the Speaker today.

As yet, no dates have been set for the bye-elections that must be held, but it is expected to be in late November - making both contest likely litmus tests for the Opposition's policy on the Rudd Government's Emissions Trading Scheme.

The Liberals have pre-selected attractive young candidates who may find the hard grind ahead very testing.

Trouble for Turnbull, 12/10.

A trio of poll has been released over the weekend - and they contain mixed messages for embattled Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull.

First released, and with perhaps the scariest message of all for Turnbull, was the Roy Morgan poll on preferred leaders of both major parties. Rudd retains a comprehensive lead over his deputy, Julia Gillard as preferred ALP leader, Rudd leads 51% cf. 22%.

More interesting are the results for the Liberals. Amongst all electors Roy Morgan finds Joe Hockey (30%, up 5%) continues to lead Turnbull (21%, down 0.5%), with Tony Abbott not much further behind (17%, up 1%).

However, when looking at Liberal voters, Turnbull has now fallen behind Hockey for the first time with Hockey leading (35%, up 9%) to Turnbull (21%, down 14%). Turnbull's situation is such that he now finds himself also dropping by conservative favourite Tony Abbott (22%, up 6%).

Certainly, the poll is not a good look for an Opposition Leader struggling to land a blow on a popular Prime Minister. In the Better PM stakes, Rudd has a massive lead over Turnbull, Rudd ahead 69% cf. 18%.

Along with the Morgan Poll released on Friday, there have also been topical polls on this very subject released today by Nielsen and Newspoll. While Newspoll, published in the Australian, showed Turnbull (32%) retaining a comfortable lead over Hockey (24%) and Abbott (16%) as the best to lead the Liberal Party - a large 28% were uncommitted.

At the same time, Nielsen released a poll agreeing with the earlier Morgan Poll - though not as definitively, Nielsen shows Hockey (33%) edging Turnbull (31%) and Abbott (21%) further back, but improving as previous candidates Costello and Nelson are now set to leave Parliament.

Rudd better economic manager, Gadzooks, 9/10.

Malcolm Turnbull cannot take a trick, and his Deputy Smokin' Joe Hockey has said 'I'm available' should the proverbial bus run Malcolm down in Double Bay.

The economy is showing every sign of powering through the Great Crash hardly missing a beat, and Rudd is kilometres ahead of Turnbull in the 'best economic manager' stakes.

Turnbull's best opportunity for redemption may come if the RBA decides to head off the next boom/bubble and this can be blamed on the Rudd government's excessive and wasteful stimulus packages.

Our latest survey is telling - see bottom RHS of Henry's home page.

41 % say they expect a new asset bubble followed by age of frugality from, say, 2015.

It now looks as if time is compressed and this scenario is not so far away as the question implies.

Costello resigns, two by-elections likely before the end of the year, 7/10.

News today confirms that former Federal Treasurer and one-time Prime Ministerial aspirant Peter Costello has decided to resign his seat of Higgins early is set to give embattled Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull another headache as the Coalition looks for a strategy to dent Kevin Rudd's popularity.

The recent preselection of former Costello staffer Kelly O'Dwyer as the Liberal candidate for Higgins signalled that talk of Peter Costello returning to the Liberal leadership was never going to prove accurate, Costello's stated intention following defeat at the 2007 Federal Election that he would not seek the leadership and would leave Parliament has turned out to be exactly what has happened.

Costello's decision to leave means the Liberals will be facing two by-elections in long-time stronghold seats of Higgins (VIC) and Bradfield (NSW) - a seat vacated by former Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson.

In other news that will surely not come as a surprise to Costello - a committed supporter of the Essendon Football Club (Playing in the AFL of course), old nemesis John Howard is being tapped up by the NRL to lead a commission investigating a structural overhaul of the way Rugby League is run in Australia.

Howard, a long-time fan of St. George, now St. George-Illwarra, has no connections to either of the co-owners of the NRL - News Limited or the ARL (Australian Rugby League). One thing we can say with clarity is that clearly Howard won't be in a hurry to seek Costello's advice on how to improve the running of the NRL.

Turnbull strategy 'out of control', 6/10.
 
'LAST week Malcolm Turnbull had one of his brain snaps that so many Liberals feared he would have' writes Dennis Shanahan.

'He put his leadership "on the line" over an emissions trading scheme, accused some colleagues of being climate change deniers and called others "anonymous smartarses".

'It was a public expression of frustration and a determination to assert his authority and impose his leadership through force of personality.

'His bold endeavour - to simply tell the Liberals they couldn't have him as leader without his ETS policy - was also based on the belief that because there was no leadership alternative he would prevail.

'He may be right but his strategy may be careering out of control because now the Liberal Party is snapping back. The Nationals have been snapping for some time and it's showing in the latest Newspoll surveys'.

Turnbull asserts leadership, 2/10.

'MALCOLM Turnbull is on a collision course with his own back bench after staking his leadership on a demand that they back his climate change strategy. Several MPs immediately refused to do so.

'If the partyroom refused to back his strategy of negotiating amendments to the government's emissions trading scheme, Mr Turnbull said yesterday, the Coalition would "literally be a party with nothing to say ... a party with no ideas", and that was "not the party I am prepared to lead".

Throwing down the gauntlet to his internal critics, Mr Turnbull said: "I am asserting my authority as the leader of the Liberal Party and the Leader of the Opposition."

"If the partyroom were to reject my recommendation to them, that would obviously be a leadership issue. That's perfectly plain, perfectly clear," he told ABC Radio in Adelaide.

"I could not possibly lead a party that was on a do-nothing-on-climate-change platform."

However, according to Lenore Taylor, Turnbull yesterday left open the possibility of a conscience vote. "We in the Liberal Party do have a tradition of allowing people to vote according to their conscience and to depart from the party line and cross the floor, if you like, in circumstances that are of particular importance to them. Now that is a right that like many rights has to be exercised with great discretion, and less frequently," he said.

More in Henry's Blog today.