Policy debate hots up, 31/3.

Newspoll says that Tony Abbott's momentum has, temporarily at least, been blocked.  His loss in the healthcare debate, his reshuffle with its necessary demotion of Barnaby Joyce both contributed, and perhaps also his Iron Man performance - very few people are naturally attracted to a man who is seen as a fanatic.

Abbott's reported big change of heart in the direction of supporting Rudd's Healthcare program may further erode his credibility.

Paul Kelly says today that the authentic Rudd is emerging from the roller-coaster economic fluctuations of his first term.

'KEVIN Rudd has unveiled an election-year story on the economy that casts him both as a true conservative pursuing economic stability and a reformer chasing a productivity revival. It will make Tony Abbott choke'.

More here today on policy matters in Henry's blog.

Barnaby strays from coalition policy on Murray Darling takeover, 29/3.

Barnaby Joyce strayed from the Coalition's official policy on the Murray Darling takeover when he suggested a referendum might not be necessary.

Tony Abbott and the federal Liberal Party support Kevin Rudd's proposed federal takeover.

The Australian writes, 'FEDERAL Opposition water spokesman Barnaby Joyce says there may be no need for a referendum on a federal takeover of the Murray-Darling Basin.

Senator Joyce,  who was handed the coalition's water portfolio last Thursday after being dumped as finance spokesman, said a referendum would be unnecessary if he could win over key interest groups.

He likened his new portfolio to having a new girlfriend, telling the Nine Network “you lose one girlfriend, you find another one”.

But the federal government has already changed its line of attack from Senator Joyce's economic credentials to his environmental record.

Water Minister Penny Wong on Saturday said Senator Joyce didn't support the Liberal Party policy of a federal takeover of the Murray-Darling Basin.

In January, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott announced a coalition government would invite the four states which have a share in the river system to refer their powers to the Commonwealth.'

Robb replaces Barnaby as Opposition Finance Minister, 27/3.

Andrew Robb has replaced Barnaby Joyce as Opposition Finance Minister.

The Australian reports Tony Abbott demoted Barnaby to infrastructure and water.

'TONY Abbott has eliminated the risk of election-campaign economic gaffes from Barnaby Joyce, dumping the maverick Queenslander as opposition finance spokesman to bolster the Coalition's financial credentials and sharpen its attack on wasteful government spending.

Bowing to weeks of internal Coalition criticism - and government ridicule - of Senator Joyce's performance, the Opposition Leader used a limited frontbench reshuffle to replace Senator Joyce with Andrew Robb as finance spokesman, handing him the task of costing election promises.

Mr Abbott acknowledged that Senator Joyce - who will now take infrastructure and water, and Nationals' leader Warren Truss's responsibilities for regional development - believed he had been subjected to "unfair criticism" since taking the finance portfolio.

Queenslander Ian Macfarlane picked up Senator Minchin's portfolios of energy and resources, portfolios he held before the coup that deposed Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader last December.'

Minchin steps down from front bench, 25/3.

Liberal Senator Nick Minchin has stepped down from the Opposition front bench and will retire once his term expires next year.

The Australian reports, 'RETIRING Liberal powerbroker Nick Minchin says his teenage son's near-death experience prompted him to reassess his life.

Senator Minchin has announced he will quit politics at the next federal election, with his son's accident last month being a key factor.'

Tony Abbott said Minchin had made a significant contribution to the Liberal Party and would be missed.

'The Opposition Leader said Senator Minchin had “dedicated his entire career to public service and has been a pillar of strength for the Liberal Party and the broader Coalition”.

“On behalf of the federal Liberal parliamentary team and his many friends in coalition, I wish Nick, Kerry and their family all the very best for their future.”'

Paul Kelly calls it for Rudd, 24/3

'KEVIN Rudd won the Great Health Debate with a reminder that he is a smooth, persuasive and formidable Prime Minister who skates over his weaknesses and projects as a constructive leader.

Henry's Blog from yesterday covers views about Obama's win on healthcare as well as the Australian debate.

Janet Albrechtsen's column today is also well worth a read.  She makes the point that Tony Abbott matches up on Kevin Rudd far better than he is likely to do when (apparently it is not 'if') Julia Gillard becomes Prime minister. Ergo, 2010 may provide the coalition's best chance for some time of defeating Labor.

Rudd and Abbott promise debate, 19/3.

Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott will both participate in  a debate on health after a fiery day of parliament.

The Australian reports, 'KEVIN Rudd and Tony Abbott have agreed to a debate on health next Tuesday.

Towards the end of a chaotic parliamentary session in which six MPs were expelled, the Prime Minister said a National Press Club debate would give Mr Abbott a chance to “explain his plans for the health and hospital system”.

Mr Rudd's acceptance of the challenge came after the government had earlier used the rare tactic of suspending Question Time to force Mr Abbott to explain his position on health.

“Does the Prime Minister intend to keep his October 2007 election promise to have three leaders' debates?” Mr Abbott asked.
Mr Rudd replied: “I welcome debating the leader of the Opposition. All three occasions I committed to.”'

Wasteful spending characterizes government school spending, 18/3.

The federal government's stimulus spending on schools may double its projected cost.

The Australian reports the spending was rushed and extremely wasteful, 'THE cost of projects under the federal government's $16.2 billion school infrastructure program more than doubles from initial estimates by the time builders start work.

A breakdown of costs for individual projects in NSW, the only government or school sector to provide the information, shows initial estimates for school buildings do not include the associated construction costs, and reveals the extent of fees and charges paid to managing contractors and builders.

At Hastings Public School at Port Macquarie on the NSW north coast, the school is building a new covered outdoor learning area and a two-classroom building with its grant of $3m from the Building the Education Revolution.

The outdoor area, known as a COLA in educational parlance, was initially budgeted for $400,000, but by the time students are running around under its shade, the structure will cost closer to $1m.'

The news further damages Kevin Rudd's credibility after he was forced to cancel the home insulation scheme.

Kevin Rudd, "whacked" in polls, 16/3.

'KEVIN Rudd's personal approval is at its worst since he became opposition leader in December 2006, and the Coalition is in its best position on primary votes since John Howard was prime minister and Kim Beazley was Labor leader.

'Despite the unveiling of the Rudd government's $50 billion plan to fix public hospitals, and the Prime Minister's frenetic media appearances and meetings with premiers over his health plan in the past two weeks, satisfaction with Mr Rudd has hit a new low of 48 per cent and dissatisfaction is at a new high of 41 per cent.

'This is his worst approval rating since he replaced Mr Beazley as Labor leader.

'Mr Rudd declared a little over two weeks ago that Labor had been getting "whacked" in the polls for some time, and he thought they needed to "lift their game" or they would continue be whacked in the polls'.

And do not miss Niki Savva's article on leaders Rudd and Abbott and their attitude to women and (gasp!) sex.

Libs urge Rudd and Swan to make serious changes, 15/3.

The Liberal Party has urged Kevin Rudd and Labor to seriously reform the federal tax code.

The Australian reports, 'THE opposition has warned Kevin Rudd to do more with the Henry tax review than simplify tax returns and criticised his guarantee it would make no state worse off.

The Australian reported this morning that Wayne Swan was pressing ahead with reform plans to streamline tax returns for thousands of PAYE workers as the centrepiece of his response to the Henry review.

But the Shadow Assistant Treasurer Sussan Ley today said this would not meet the expectations of Australians and urged for the review’s immediate release.

“After sitting on the report’s recommendations since December last year, Australians will expect the government to do more than just simplifying tax returns,” she said.

“The Treasurer is talking up the streamlining of pay-as-you-go tax returns as the “centrepiece” of the Government’s response.'

ABC chairman calls for balanced climate change reporting, 12/3.

The chairman of the ABC has criticized the organization for being consistently biased on climate change reporting.

The Australian writes, 'THE chairman of the ABC, Maurice Newman, has told about 250 leading journalists, program-makers and managers at the ABC that the media had displayed "group-think" on the issue of climate change in a speech that led to a feisty exchange with senior journalists and forced managing director Mark Scott to try to smooth the waters.

Describing himself as an agnostic on climate change, Mr Newman said climate change was an example "of group-think where contrary views have not been tolerated, and where those who express them have been labelled and mocked".

He warned ABC staffers that he would not tolerate anyone suppressing information, citing the fact that a BBC science correspondent knew for a month before the scandal broke of damaging emails at the University of East Anglia in Britain highlighting the politicised nature of climate science but did not report them.

Mr Newman said the Guardian newspaper had noted that the moment climatology is sheltered from dispute, its force begins to wane.

"Which raises an important question for a media organisation," Mr Newman said in the speech obtained by The Australian. "Who, if anyone, decides what to shelter from dispute? And when?'

Tax reform, 11/3

Hear, hear to Robert Carling of CIS fame.

'The reform agenda should have as its cornerstone a cut in marginal rates. Labor's aspirational scale would be a first step, but tax rates should be cut further through time so that most taxpayers face a marginal rate significantly below 30 per cent and the top rate is well below 40 per cent.

'Thresholds for marginal rates should be automatically indexed to inflation each year, depriving governments of the proceeds of bracket creep.

'On their own, these changes would leave a large hole in the budget. This can be avoided by implementing the changes gradually during a period of years, consistent with the government's stated 10-year horizon for reform and by keeping the growth of government spending on a tight rein'.

Has Tony Abbott stuffed up?, 10/3.

'I am devastated at Abbott’s lapse into Socialist style interventionism and discrimination against big business. I cannot believe it, as it is against everything he has ever stood for. Not to mention middle class welfare at it’s worst'.

This sentance is the guts of an email from a deeply conservative reader who, I suspect, is a member of the Liberal Party.

As an economist I am, of course, sympathetic to this line of thought, but there is a counter argument.

See Henry's blog today.

Liberals draw level with Labor in S.A. election, 10/3.

The Liberals are running neck and neck with Labor in the South Australian state election.

The Australian reports the two parties are tied on 50% support, and predicts an extremely close election.

'THE Liberals have drawn level with Labor in South Australia, 10 days before the state election, as Mike Rann's popularity plummets along with the ALP's primary vote.

Today's Newspoll result will alarm the Rann government as it seeks a third term on March 20. Taken exclusively for The Australian from January to this month, the poll found Labor to be in a dead heat with the Liberals, each with 50 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote.

While Mr Rann's satisfaction levels are in freefall, Liberal leader Isobel Redmond continues to improve, eclipsing the Premier's voter satisfaction ratings.

Ms Redmond, the first female leader of a major political party in South Australia, has drawn even with Mr Rann on the question of who would make the better premier.

The Newspoll result carries extra significance for Kevin Rudd, with a federal election due later this year and the tide turning against Labor in many parts of the country.'

Abbotts parental leave policy draws criticism, 9/3.

Small and big businesses have criticized Tony Abbott's plan to introduce new paid parental leave in Australia.

The Australian reports Tony Abbott's plan would be funded by a new tax on big businesses.

'BIG business today dismissed Tony Abbott's paid parental leave proposal, warning taxpayers might have to fill the "funding hole" during an economic downturn.

And small businesses, which would not have to pay a levy under the Opposition leader's plan, warned big business would pass on the costs to them.

Mr Abbott today flagged a scheme for six months' leave that would pay parents the equivalent of their salaries up to $150,000.

He estimated a 1.7 per cent levy on businesses earning more than $5 million per annum would raise $2.7 billion each year.'

Taxpayers currently fund Australia's maternity leave program.

Labor will attempt to change the Constituion if it cannot force its health funding changes through the Senate, 8/3.

The federal health minister today warned Labor would resort to a referendum if the Senate blocks Kevin Rudd's direct health funding.

The Australian reports, 'THE federal government could still hold a referendum on hospital reform even if the Senate rejects the idea, Health Minister Nicola Roxon says.

With the federal opposition and some states opposed to Labor's plans to increase Canberra's role in public health funding, the government may have to ask the Senate for permission to hold a referendum on the issue.

Asked what would happen if the upper house of parliament refused, Ms Roxon said a referendum could still be held.'

The Liberals, Nationals and Family First all oppose the Labor's plan to centralize healt funding in the federal government.

Rudd defiant, 6/3.

'KEVIN Rudd has vowed he will not change his leadership style or government decision-making processes in a pointed rebuke to critics within his own caucus who fear his centralised approach is driving Labor's slide in opinion polls and risking its re-election prospects.

'The Prime Minister has also declared he is prepared for a political war with state governments resisting his proposed seizure of 30 per cent of their GST receipts to bankroll a takeover of public hospitals, warning premiers and chief ministers he will not "haul up the tawdry white flag" in the face of opposition.

'And Mr Rudd has flatly refused to fast-track the release of the Henry review of the tax system, completed last year, in a direct rejection of growing pressure from colleagues to table the document, expected to be politically controversial, as soon as possible to avoid fuelling an opposition scare campaign close to this year's federal election'.

Tax policy may expire unopened, 5/3.

The Oz today reports anxiety at cabinet level at the speed with which the Rudd government is becoming unravelled. With the Rudd government struggling to revolutionise health and education, there is little chance of bold tax reform anytime soon.

Meanwhile, Julia looks better and better.

Rudd needs more action, less yap, 3/2.

Paul Kelly says: 'THE enduring point from Kevin Rudd's weekend mea culpa is that it only deepens the confusion that surrounds his government in public perceptions and policy belief.

'Social researcher and analyst Hugh Mackay tells The Australian: "I think people still feel they don't know Kevin Rudd and the doubts are only reinforced as a result of this confessional. The mood towards his government is still very much `wait and see'. Rudd's prime ministership is not entrenched in the public imagination. The distillation at present is that people feel we don't really know him and we're still trying to make up our minds."

Rudd's tactic is obvious: to draw a political line under recent failure and move on to a clean page. That's sensible. There is much goodwill towards his government. But Rudd's most pivotal admission was a shocker: referring to health reform, he said on ABC1's Insiders: "We didn't properly, I think, estimate the complexity of what we were embarking on."

'Play that again? This sounds like a government out of its depth. Labor didn't realise how tough health and hospital reform would prove. What about tax reform, with its hidden Henry report? What about climate change, with its emissions trading scheme? What about the revival of productivity that Rudd enshrined as a goal? The pattern is recurring: announcements are made, timetables are given but policy is harder than realised. Rudd even conceded this in a generic sense, saying: "We didn't anticipate how hard it was going to be to deliver things." This raises the bigger question of how far such policy misjudgments run'.

Keep health with the states, 1/3.

Several former state Premiers have warned Kevin Rudd not to nationalize Australian healthcare, according to the Australian.

George Megalogenis writes, 'KEVIN Rudd has been publicly warned by former premiers on both sides of politics not to take over the running of public hospitals because the bungled home insulation program shows that Canberra cannot be trusted to do a better job of delivering services than the states.

The Prime Minister is also being urged by many of his own colleagues to rethink the implementation of the federal government's reform agenda to prevent further, self-defeating attempts to centralise power.

"They are into everything at the moment, and every minister wants his share of the action," former West Australian Labor premier Geoff Gallop said.

"Every government falls for this trap, but the best way for the commonwealth to get results is to limit the objective and act as a facilitator, rather than a controller."'

Health is, and should always be a state responsibility.

In this author's opinion, the surest way to improve health, education and other public services is to abolish the federal income tax and let the states tax levy income taxes.

This would eliminate federal bureaucracy and make the states entirely responsible for their own healthcare systems.

Blood in the water, 26/2.

'PETER Garrett's sacking over the roofing insulation scheme - and that's what it is - has extended the sense of crisis about the failed $2.45 billion project and heaped more pressure on Kevin Rudd.

'In an attempt to clean up the mess the Prime Minister has made things worse'.

This mob might self destruct, gentle readers.

Rudd to fix insulation scandal, 26/2.

'KEVIN Rudd has expressed disappointment at his own performance over the bungled home insulation scheme, admitting he should have asked more questions about the program's implementation.

'The Prime Minister said last night he was personally responsible for "the lot of it" after a day of torrid questioning and pressure over the insulation program, which was dumped a week ago after it was linked to 93 house fires and four deaths. Admitting a "fair bit" had gone wrong, Mr Rudd told the ABC's 7.30 Report he should have paid greater attention. "I am disappointed in myself for not asking more questions," he said. "Plainly this particular program has been implemented ineffectively and you've got problems. In our system, I am responsible for the lot of it."

'Mr Rudd said he accepted that people would cast judgment on his performance in this year's federal election but that his current task was to "step up to the plate" and fix the problems'.

Sir Wellington Boote steps into the firing line with his plan for a vast reduction of government claims on the taxpayer.

All yap, no action, 22/2.

Paul Sheehan reports: 'Rarely has a government promised so much, spent so much, said so much, and launched so many nationwide programs, and delivered so little value for money and expectation. Two years of Kevin Rudd has produced 20 years of debt, and most of it cannot be blamed on the global financial crisis. This alphabet soup is self-inflicted'.

  Courtesy SMH

Read on for the alphabetical list.

No early election, 20/2

'Peter Garrett is finished as a minister. The besieged Environment Minister might keep his job out of political expediency but he has lost any credibility and he should be sacked.  Dennis Shanahan reports.

It's no longer just about the emotive issue of workers' deaths and house fires with an arguably tenuous link of responsibility back to Garrett; it's now about gross incompetence and the failure of a massive $2.45 billion program for which the minister was directly responsible.

It's about a scheme that's been rorted and is now costing jobs, not creating them, as businesses face ruin.

PM 'rattled', 18/2.

'Tony Abbott might have sounded unsympathetic to the homeless in a speech last week but they seem to have done pretty well out of him. Kevin Rudd yesterday decided to try to show up the Opposition Leader by announcing $10 million for the mentally disturbed homeless. That's the tit-for-tat politics of election year. Michelle Grattan reports.

'Rudd called a news conference to bash Abbott but found himself the one under attack. The PM who has been on top of the world now has two ministers, Peter Garrett and Stephen Conroy, in trouble, the emissions trading scheme an albatross, the polls narrowing, and the media guns directed at him.

'When he met journalists in his Parliament House courtyard, the PM looked and sounded like a leader in a low. His voice was flat and quiet, at times drowned out by noise from a lawn-mower. He kept saying things were ''important'' but you wouldn't have thought it. He had a serious energy deficit'.

Henry had the privilege and pleasure of breaking bread with Tony Abbott last night.  He is distinctly unrattled and energetic.  If democracy depends on a strong and confident opposition, Australia is a distinctly stronger democracy today that is was 3 months ago.

Polls move for Abbott, coalition, 16/2.

Well, we may just have a political contest on our hands.

The Australian people are becoming tired on bureaucratic yap witout inaction, the complicated but ultimately ineffective ETS policy on climate change and just possibly the wasteful and even dangerous stimulus package.

Newspoll reports today: 'KEVIN Rudd's personal voter appeal is at its lowest since he became Labor leader more than three years ago as support for Labor's emissions trading scheme slumps and the ALP's primary support sits at its lowest since Kim Beazley was opposition leader.

'Labor's primary vote has dropped below 40 per cent for the first time since 2006 and the Coalition has managed to hold its primary vote at 40 per cent for a month for the first time since the 2007 election loss.

'On the weekend after the Rudd government reintroduced its plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by putting a market price on carbon, public support for the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme dropped to a new low after the fiasco of the UN's Copenhagen climate conference in December and Coalition opposition to an ETS'.

Dennis Shanahan's view is worth a read.

Shocking bungle but Garrett hangs on, 15/2.

Glenn Milne says: 'THE comparison is invidious, brutal but nonetheless true and I apologise in advance to the good family of Private Jake Kovco and his loved ones before I make it.

'But it goes to the sometimes sickening process of politics and the people who make it, and I hope they forgive me. But the fact is that more Australians have died as a result of the Rudd government's home insulation program, "administered" by Environment Minister Peter Garrett, than lost their lives in the Iraq war'.

It's about policy, Mr Rudd, 12/2.

The Australian, having recently named Mr Rudd Australian of the Year, now see fit to advise on less yap, more action.

'So, here's a suggestion for a government in search of a narrative. We want an Australia where wealth flows from a commitment to open markets, where enterprise and hard work are rewarded, and where the need for innovation and risk-taking is understood and encouraged. The next step would be to settle on two or three big areas that need attention and begin putting in place a framework to deliver that narrative. Mr Rudd could start with fixing the bottlenecks in transport networks and ports, which continue to impede export growth. He could make a decision on hospital reform and tell us what he plans to do rather than ducking and weaving over his promise of a federal takeover. And he could start articulating a compromise position on industrial relations, one that ensures business has access to the employees and flexibility it needs but which is also acceptable to the Australian public'.

BCA abandons ETS, 12/2.

'THE Rudd government has lost the last fig leaf on an emissions trading scheme that starts ahead of the rest of the world: "business certainty".

'The Business Council of Australia {the ultimate pragmatists] no longer considers the introduction of an ETS as providing business certainty and has put a caveat on support for an Australian scheme that cannot be met'.

Libs and Nats may be prepared to support ETS after 2020, 11/2.

[Ed: most unlikely, comrades, given shifts in the polls]

The Coalition says it may support an ETS by 2020, but only if there is a strong international agreement and climate change charter.

The Australian reports, 'THE Coalition could support an emissions trading scheme after 2020 if the world goes in that direction, opposition climate change spokesman Greg Hunt has admitted.

Mr Hunt said the review of the Coalition's "direct action" plan in 2015 would assess the global situation and decide the best way to continue greenhouse gas abatement after 2020.

"This is a scheme which will run at least until 2020 - we will have a review in 2015, and we have said we will look at what is happening in the rest of the world," Mr Hunt said during a debate with Climate Change Minister Penny Wong at the National Press Club yesterday.

"If it appears the US and other countries were moving towards a global market system, we would look at that approach from 2020."'

The announcement suggests the Liberals will probably surrender the climate change debate once Tony Abbott is no longer leader.

Rudd faces tough decision, 10/2.

Kevin Rudd now has a fight on his hands with Tony Abbott writes Paul Kelly.

'THE transformation of climate change politics has left the Rudd government struggling: the domestic consensus is shattered, global co-operation is in retreat and Kevin Rudd faces a decisive test of his political courage.

The pivotal question, inconceivable a few months ago, is unavoidable: does Rudd stay the path with a double dissolution on his emissions trading scheme, or does he search for a fall-back to avoid the wild and populist confrontation that awaits his government.

Senior Labor figures are divided on the best tactic, an ominous sign. Labor's policy is in trouble. It is exposed by a rapidly shifting electoral sentiment; and it faces in Tony Abbott a re-energised Coalition machine capable, for the first time since the 2007 poll, of hurting Rudd Labor.'

Kelly argues climate change policy is now a liability for Rudd and Labor, and that public opinion has turned decisively against climate change action.

Turnbull promises to vote for Labor ETS, 9/2.

Malcolm Turnbull today announced he prefers Labor's ETS to the Coalition's alternative, and that he would vote with the government on the issue.

The Australian reports, 'KEVIN Rudd has seized on former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull's declaration of intent to cross the floor and vote with Labor for an emissions trading scheme as evidence Tony Abbott's plan would be a "fiscal disaster."

The Prime Minister sought to shift the climate change debate to economic management in Parliament today, running with Mr Turnbull's line that direct action policies such as Mr Abbott's were a "recipe for fiscal recklessness".

"Two months ago they stood rock solid behind the Leader of the Opposition on the approach to the climate change. And today is all about one thing - distraction with a capital D," Mr Rudd said.'

Turnbull's decision reveals deep division on climate change remains within the Liberal Party, despite Tony Abbott's recent leadership win.

Secret embargo on Iran, 4/2.

The Australian government today announced it had secretly blocked some exports to Iran under the Weapons of Mass Destruction Act.

Kevin Rudd told the media Australia would continue this policy into the future.

The Australian reports, 'The Prime Minister said today Australia had “no alternative” and a responsibility as a good global citizen to act given the threat of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Mr Rudd was responding to an exclusive report in The Australian revealing Defence Minister John Faulkner used special powers to block four shipments.

Mr Rudd said his advice was those powers had been used at least three times.'

Henry says: 'Tony Abbott's becoming Liberal Party and opposition leader has changed the game on climate change in Australia'. 

Of course, the fiasco that was Copenhagen played into his hands, but now some of the real options are getting airtime.

Lord Monckton has been striding our stages, rolling this memorable eyes, throwing abuse at the climate change worriers and advocating unchanged policy in his to Henry patronising, often simply rude, manner.

Glaciergate has hideously embarrassed the United Nations climate change fanatics, and done great damage to the cause of those who think there is a problem.

Australia's Chief Scientist, Professor Penny Sackett, has finally entered the debate, pleading it seems to Henry for a science-based approach to the subject and recognition that 'skeptic' should not be a term of abuse in any science-based debate.

Labor has reintroduced its ETS legislation, and there are fresh mutterings about a double dissolution election.  'Bring it on' says Tony Abbott.

More here.

Abbott's climate change policy, 3/2.

Tony Abbott announced a new Coalition climate change policy on his first day as leader of the Coalition in federal parliament.

Instead of an ETS, the Coalition would spend billions of dollars on ways to immediately cut carbon dioxide emissions.

The Australian reports, 'TONY Abbott has promised to attack climate change with a $3.2 billion plan that does not cap carbon emissions but instead proposes direct action such as planting trees.

And while Kevin Rudd has ridiculed the direct-action plan as "a climate con job", most business groups have backed the plan, agreeing with the Opposition Leader's assertion it is "cheaper, simpler and more cost-effective" than Labor's proposed carbon emissions trading scheme.

Mr Abbott used his policy launch yesterday as a springboard for a frenzied attack on the Prime Minister as parliament met for the first time in 2010 - which will almost certainly be an election year.'

Abbott said his policy would cut Australia's 1990 emission levels by 5%.

Abbott, Libs, reel in Rudd's Labor, 2/2.

'KEVIN Rudd has warned voters there is "no guarantee" Labor will win the next election in the wake of a shock Newspoll finding that the Coalition has overtaken Labor on the primary vote.

The Prime Minister said today the reality was that Mr Abbott would be prime minister if two or three people in 100 changed their vote at the next election.

Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian today, finds that Labor retains an election-winning lead of four points - 52-48 - on par with the result that delivered the 2007 election win.

But for first time since the 2007 federal election, the Coalition leads Labor - 41-40 - in primary vote support.

Learning all the tricks of the trade - February 2, 2010.

Rudd tilting at windmills, 2/2.

Terry McCrann reviews the recently released Intergenerational Report.

'KEVIN Rudd is damned and damned utterly by his own Intergenerational Report. It loudly proclaims we have a prime minister who hasn't got a clue.
 
'Of course it does so completely unknowingly and self-evidently unintentionally. Most deliciously, in so capturing the report's comprehensive inanity, with the illustration chosen for the cover.

'All of which also tells us we have a Treasury department and a Treasury head in Ken Henry which/who are also utterly clueless'.

Rudd attacks Coalition's climate change policy, 1/2.

Kevin Rudd says teh Coalition's new climate change policy will only be effective if it includes a major new tax.

The Australian writes, 'KEVIN Rudd says Tony Abbott will have to slug Australians with "one big mega-tax" if he is to address climate change without a carbon emissions trading scheme.

But the Opposition Leader has ridiculed the Prime Minister's claims, vowing new policies expected to be released by tomorrow will not involve new or increased taxes.

The competing claims came as the pair prepared to square off in parliament tomorrow for the first sittings of the year, when the government will introduce new legislation creating an ETS after similar legislation was rejected twice last year.

Tomorrow's sitting will include the first question time in which Mr Abbott will lead the opposition since he ousted Malcolm Turnbull early in December and immediately dumped Coalition support for Labor's ETS.'

The climate change debate looks set to dominate Australian politics this year, especially after three incidents of the UN faking scientific evidence to support a new international agreement.

NSW Liberals back O'Farrell, 30/1.

The NSW state Liberal Party is still behind Barry O'Farrell, one year away from a state election.

The Australian reports there have been rumours of other candidates, but O'Farrell maintains a hold on the leadership.

'KEY NSW Liberals have locked in behind Opposition Leader Barry O'Farrell, confirming that he will lead the party to the election next year and almost certainly become the state's 43rd premier.

The support for Mr O'Farrell's leadership follows a poll earlier this month showing NSW Premier Kristina Keneally enjoying a lead as preferred premier and rumours that former federal Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull could be eyeing his job.

Senior state Liberals yesterday dismissed the rumours.'

The NSW state election is a must win for the Liberals considering the Labor Party's dismal performance.

UN attacks Australian immigration policy, 29/1.

The United Nations has criticized Australian immigration policy because it screens refugees for HIV.

The UN believes this policy is inhumane and undermines international human rights agreements.

The Australian writes, 'THE UN High Commissioner for Refugees has attacked as "discriminatory" Australia's policy of screening asylum-seekers for HIV.

The regional office of the UN agency wants Australia to scrap its health requirement for refugees. "The present operation of the health requirement is discriminatory in effect and endangers a number of human rights norms," it says in a submission to a parliamentary inquiry into Australia's treatment of disabled migrants.

"To that extent, Australia presently falls short of its international obligations."

The UNHCR says Australia's health rules effectively bar any refugee found to have HIV or AIDS, unless the Immigration Minister grants a waiver. "Although the waiver is theoretically available, UNHCR's experience in practice suggests that it is very rarely granted," it says.'

However, the HIV screenings save money on future medical costs and prevent more dangerous viruses and diseases from entering the country.

Australian house prices jump higher, 28/1.

The average Australian house price increased 12% last year as the economy shows signs of recovery.

The Australian reports the 12% increase was the biggest annual increase since 2003.

'AUSTRALIA last year experienced the strongest annual house price growth since 2003, but median house price growth is likely to be moderate across all sectors of the market in the next six months.

The country's property market posted a near 5 per cent rise in median house prices during the three months to December and a 12.1 per cent rise overall for the year, according to Australian Property Monitors.

The property research firm said first-home buyer demand sustained the market in the early part of the year, but upgraders and investors drove the overall result for 2009.

Activity in the more expensive suburbs benefited from the surprisingly resilient jobs market experienced late last year and a strongly rising sharemarket.'

Desalination forces water prices higher, 25/1.

Water prices will rise in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and SA as state governments introduce costly new desalination plants.

The Australian reports desalination plants will make water more expensive because of their high power consumption.

'HOUSEHOLDS will pay hundreds of dollars extra for water as state governments splash $9 billion of taxpayer funds on energy-guzzling desalination plants that will produce nearly a third of capital-city supplies within two years.

The seawater purification "factories" - which can pump out enough drinking water each year to fill Sydney Harbour - will operate around the clock at taxpayer expense, even when high rainfall means their expensive output is not required.

Water utilities yesterday warned urban water prices would spiral in line with the rising cost of electricity needed to operate the massive plants in Sydney, Adelaide, Perth, Melbourne and the Gold Coast.'

Rudd defends car subsidy, 22/1.

Kevin Rudd has defended the government's $6.2 billion subsidy for green cars made in Australia.

He argued the subsidy was necessary to improve Australian productivity and maintain the auto industry.

The Australian writes, 'KEVIN Rudd has vowed to maintain the government's $6.2 billion car industry investment fund despite Productivity Commission advice to roll back industry subsidies if it wants to increase national productivity.

The Prime Minister attacked opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey, who said on Wednesday the government should seriously consider the recommendations to roll back industry subsidies, including the big support packages for the automotive and textile industries.

Speaking in Adelaide, Mr Rudd said the government would continue to be "co-investors" in the motor vehicle industry for the future.'

The republic debate continues, 21/1.

Julia Gillard today dismissed having a referenedum on Australia becoming a republic.

The Deputy PM said that although the issue was important, it was not an immediate or pressing concern.

The Australian quotes her saying, '"The four potential referendum questions are obviously the republic, the recognition of indigenous Australians, the third is local government and the fourth is this issue of co-operative federalism," he told the Fairfax newspaper.

But the Deputy Prime Minister rebuffed the report.

"There are no present plans to have a referendum," she told reporters before last night's community cabinet meeting in Adelaide.

"We are focused on the challenges that confront this nation immediately."'

The republic referendum was defeated in 1999, but it is surely only a matter of time before another referendum is held.

The Coalition's new climate change policy, 20/1.

Tony Abbot is busy creating the Coalition's new climate change policy.

The Australian reports his decision not to include incentives for turning agricultural land into forest will be a major change.

'TONY Abbott will rule out the use of prime agricultural land for carbon sinks when he announces a new policy on climate change in a move aimed at avoiding a damaging split with the Nationals.

The new Coalition policy, expected to be released ahead of next month's parliamentary showdown with Kevin Rudd on the emissions trading scheme, is expected to hold back on declaring an emissions-reduction target before the Prime Minister names his final position. The policy will also include incentives to boost soil carbon levels and revegetate land.'

Clearly, Abbott wants a consensus climate change policy with the Nationals going into this year's election.

Abbott makes ground on Rudd, 19/1.

'KEVIN Rudd's personal support has taken a tumble as he confronts an election year with early signs that Tony Abbott is recapturing the traditional Liberal base'.

'Why so?' Mrs T asked over the morning cornflakes. 'Why is Tony doing better than Malcolm?'

Henry muttered something about Abbott being an inherently more likable person than Turnbull.  Then another thought interfered with the ABC news: 'Australians like self-made blokes, but Turnbull overachieved to the point where people felt he must have been a ruthless bastard and/or a tax evader'.

'What about Tony's views on climate change. After all, you thought Malcolm was right to back Rudd.'

'Copenhagen changed all that', Henry replied. 'Rudd's position suddeny looked pretty silly. It was a crazy curve to have tried to get ahead of. China let all the activists down, bigtime.  And that UN snafu on the Himalayan glaciers has shaken even my faith in 'consensus science'.

Was WorkChoices to blame?, 15/1.

The Australian labor market in 2009 looked like a very flexible market.  Jobs boomed, but mostly part-time jobs.  Hours worked slumped and wage increases were subdued.

From January 1st of this year, Australia is operating with all of Labor's new Fair Work legislation.

Henry's fearless prediction is that from now labor market data will surprise on the downside.  If it does, we can only hope that the politicians can understand the message. This includes the current Liberal leadership, who say that WorkChoices was a mistake.  Perhaps a political mistake, though it now looks as if nothing could have saved the Howard government by late 2007.

If Henry's prediction turns out to be correct, abandoning WorkChoices will be seen as a big economic policy mistake, and the voters will have no-one to call upon, except Mr. Howard himself, assuming he could be coaxed out of retirement.  (About as likely as Shane Warne coming back for the next Ashes series, I suspect.)

If there is no discernable difference, and Australia's labor market keeps roaring, we shall have to conclude that labor market legislation no longer matters for the Australian economy - although looking at the latest Roy Morgan unemployment figures for December, later backed up by ABS data this week, shows that during the last days of the 'flexible' Australian workforce unemployment did indeed fall - at a faster clip than expected.

Surprises like this may not occur as frequently as we would hope in 2010.

Tony Abbott on Liberal Party future, 7/1.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott joined the 7.30 Report to discuss the future of the Liberal Party and the likelihood of winning the next election.

'I want to see an Australia which has more confidence, more strength, more prosperity but in particular I want to see a fair go for families.

'I want to see more patient centred health care. I want to see more patient power in our health system. That means local boards running hospitals. I want to see more parent power in our education system. That means local boards having more influence over schools. I am in favour of democracy. I'm in power of empowering the Australian public. You look at Kevin Rudd by contrast Chris, what he likes is big bureaucracy, big unions and great big taxes'.

To view the interview click on the link here.

Temperature data escalates climate change debate, 6/12.

Peter Garrett and the Labor Party today argued that climate data for 2009 proves global warming is real.

2009 was the second hottest Australian year on record according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

The Australian reports, 'Environment Minister Peter Garrett said today the finding that Australia's annual mean temperature for 2009 was 0.9C above the 1961-90 average exposed Tony Abbott's false climate change claim that global warming has stopped.

“This false and misleading claim is today shown to be completely at odds with the rigorous scientific findings of the independent experts at the Bureau of Meteorology,” Mr Garrett said.

“This is the latest Abbott climate-change clanger to be exposed by the independent experts and once again shows why Mr Abbott cannot be trusted when it comes to climate change.”'

These new statistics will certainly escalate the climate change debate as Australia prepares for a federal election.

Advice for Tony Abbott, 5/1.

Sir Wellington Boote suggests five new policies to deal with the problem of Islamic terror.

He concludes that 'policy moves such as these would have a massively disruptive effect on the broad muslim masses who are now connected with the West. These moves could be the basis for halting the movement of these disruptive and culturally alien people into our lives. We don't need them and they bring nothing to our lives that we want. This disruption would badly effect the AIS element in Islam and among the muslims. This disruption is a good thing and if it was done with verve and imagination it could take the place of violence and warfare on our part toward them.
 
'In short, we must adopt the policing policy of J.Edgar Hoover.
 
'The great policeman was once asked what was his 'philosophy of policing'. He answered that it had two elements ... part 1: 'get the bums on the run' ... part 2: 'keep them on the run'.
 
'Henry, the day is approaching when we will also have to get these islamic bums on the run. I recommend that Australia's public figures address this matter as a priority.
 
'Is this an opening for Tony Abbott?'

Illegal immigration debate heats up, 1/1/2010.

The illegal immigration debate has escalated after Tony Abbott vowed to send boat people back to their home countries.

The Australian reports Malcolm Fraser and Tim Costello have both labelled the new Liberal leader's policy cruel and inhumane.

'Mr Fraser said Mr Abbott's policy pledge was "out of the past, appropriate to the 1930s" when Australia was "a narrow, inward-looking country" and the product of "grossly exaggerated claims about border protection".

'"It's so easy to scratch a raw nerve," he said. "If people come from a different background, if they are a different colour, especially if they are a different religion, the easiest thing in the world is to arouse fears."'

Tim Costello similarly condemned Tony Abbott's decision, "When they have Christian faith I would just ask them, which boat would Jesus tow back out and leave on its own?"

Interestingly, Kevin Rudd and Labor have not vocally criticized the Liberal Party's new policy.

In the 2001 election they sided with Malcolm Fraser and Tim Costello, but have since moved closer to John Howard's policies.