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Henry Thornton - Politics: A discussion of economic, social and political issues Why the coalition will win. Date 18/08/2010
Member rating 4.3/5
I predict a Coalition win by a minimum of ten seats, though, thanks to Workchoices, they will not gain control of the Senate.
By Tiresias of Canberra Email / Print
 Henry, I predict a Coalition win by a minimum of ten seats, though, thanks to Workchoices, they will not gain control of the Senate.  The Coalition has not earned their win, the ALP have thrown it all away.
For starters, the ALP not only underestimate Tony Abbott, but, far, far, worse, they imagine that every thinking Australian has no choice but to share their view that he is a cross between Savonarola and General Pinochet.  Yet there is nothing in Abbott’s language or behaviour to suggest real extremism.  The banal truth is that Abbott is representative of a pretty broad section of the Australian population and is as frightening as a Holden.  Focussing an entire election campaign against the pretended danger of electing someone like him is a great way of telling the election what the parliamentary ALP really think about the people they hope to govern.
Secondly, much of the ALP’s record is lacklustre, but even more is embarrassing.  Kevin Rudd’s behaviour at Copenhagen, his visible joy at hobnobbing with the global elite and enthusiasm for sharing our resources with African tyrants and their NGO camp-followers, must have turned the stomachs of tax-paying Australians who live pay-check to pay-check.  The school building program fools no-one: there could hardly have been a corner of Australia where ordinary people would not have been stunned at the waste involved in building tuckshops and school halls at inflated prices.  The bonuses sent out to every household were appreciated, but the electorate are not stupid – they realised all along that they were getting a kind of tax refund (to be paid for at a later date) rather than a genuine gift. 
Then there were the refugees and the boats.  Most ALP voters are happy to keep the welfare state, but they want to keep it for themselves.  Rudd’s extraordinary increase in annual immigration rates revealed him as the would-be social engineer that he wanted to be all along.  The backdown on population policy came way too little, way too late.  The Australian people are now in a state of sustained, deeply-felt, anger at the way they have been (and still are being) played for suckers over refugee/immigration issues.
Thirdly, there is the coup.  Few Australians have any grasp of Parliamentary procedure or the caucus system and many feel that it is their right to kick Rudd out of office.  His replacement by a candidate nominated by the Arbib/Bitar machine in NSW puts Gillard in the position where she looks as if she owes her office to factional bosses, which she does.  Outside of the ALP and the Canberra press gallery no one has the time of day for the so-called ‘hard men’ of the NSW Labor Right.  They are electorally toxic and bitterly resented by people who would once have regarded the ALP as their kind of party.  Just why the ALP continues to host mafia-like cliques that have nothing to offer but intrigue and career-focussed influence-peddling is anyone’s guess.  Whining about the confusion between state and federal issues is a fool’s game – a party infected at any level with thugs and buffoons will suffer all around.  That’s life.
Gillard blew her last chance when she began to respond to interviewers like a Stepford wife. On TV all she offers is the party line, which we already know and have stopped listening to.  The trouble with the party line is that despite focus groups and the obsession with the news cycle people on the Hill truly live in a gilded cage and party perspectives are never relevant outside of it.  Years ago I used to work with the wife of a very, very, senior ALP staffer ... a paid up member of the ‘royal family’ as it were.  During the lead up to the election of 1996 this woman assured anyone who would listen that the unemployment problem was being solved, that the news was good but it was hard getting the message out.  Her focus was always on the spin.  She truly had no idea how deep the damage of “the recession that we had to have” had been or how bitterly disappointed the voters were.  Election 2010 is not a rerun of 1996, but the inability to understand, the desire to talk over people and the desire that other voices fall silent so that the great and good can get their message across (as if they are not in campaign mode all the time anyway) is still the same.
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