Rabbits in the spotlight
Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Author: Henry Thornton
After yesterday's brutal selloff of global equities, another half percent fall overnight on Wall Street gives no hint of a relief rally today.
The particular trigger overnight was Ireland's debt reclassified as junk. But with Greece a basket case, the debt of Spain, Italy and Portugal all looking like junk already, and political jousting in the USA over debt reduction, markets will suffer further falls.
The Economist devotes several pages to the US situation. 'A US technical default would convulse markets. Nothing else is certain' says the venerable mag.
'AMERICA’S debt is supposedly the world’s safest, backed by trustworthy courts and an unrivalled capacity to raise taxes and print money. Yet thanks to a quirk of law, talk of default is not confined to the European side of the Atlantic'.
The Economist concludes: 'Even if Congress were to tackle turmoil by quickly lifting the debt ceiling, the stain would linger. “In the past our assumption was interest would always be paid on time,” says Steven Hess of Moody’s, a ratings agency which has cautioned that even a brief default would cost America its coveted Aaa status. “If an actual payment were missed once, might that happen again? If you thought it could, that is clearly not compatible with Aaa.” .'
In a seperate contribution, the Economist analyses the 'cynical political game' being played over the debt reduction imperative.
'This newspaper has a strong dislike of big government; we have long argued that the main way to right America’s finances is through spending cuts. But you cannot get there without any tax rises. In Britain, for instance, the coalition government aims to tame its deficit with a 3:1 ratio of cuts to hikes. America’s tax take is at its lowest level for decades: even Ronald Reagan raised taxes when he needed to do so.
'And the closer you look, the more unprincipled the Republicans look. Earlier this year House Republicans produced a report noting that an 85%-15% split between spending cuts and tax rises was the average for successful fiscal consolidations, according to historical evidence. The White House is offering an 83%-17% split (hardly a huge distance) and a promise that none of the revenue increase will come from higher marginal rates, only from eliminating loopholes. If the Republicans were real tax reformers, they would seize this offer'.
How similar is this to the game playing and misdiagnosis that was part of the Great Depression? We shall only know in retrospect, but right now world leaders look rather like rabbits caught in the spotlights.
But they were warned. In October 2008, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said we were facing 'a decade-long toil of pitiful growth – or none at all – as we purge debt. The world stole prosperity from the future for year after year, with the full collusion of governments, regulators, and central banks. Now the future has arrived'.
Even this humble scribe said as long ago as March 2008: 'There will be a vast de-leveraging of balance sheets. Credit will shrink dramatically and when growth resumes it will be at a far slower rate. Failed financial institutions will be forced into mergers, as with the takeover at a firesale price of Bear Sterns by JP Morgan, or nationalised.... Asset values will decline substantially....'
Long weekend Sanity Break, 6-8 June 2015
Date: Saturday, June 06, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
The contradictions of the Australian economy continue to confuse us all. Slow wages growth and low retail sales are effects of uncertainty and fear that jobs will be lost. But with national income falling, household saving is falling from the post-GFC high even to maintain low levels of household spending. Meanwhile falling mining investment and feeble non-mining investment adds to the gloom. A massive $3.9 billion current account deficit (CAD) sparks memories of the trigger for the 'Banana Republic' crisis of 1986.
Those of us who are concerned by these facts are labelled 'clowns, fools and wreckers'. It would be interesting to help Glenn Stevens drink a bottle of Grange and ask him if the glass was half full or completely empty when he'd finished. Or to get his private thoughts about where we are and what is needed to put Australia back on the road to prosperity in a post-GFC, post-China boom world. Henry's 'Dreamtime Economics' provides some ideas.
Calls for a broader and higher GST are increasing, most surprisingly from David Marr on last week's 'Insiders'. It will be interesting to see what the White Paper on tax reform says. About as much as the information paper on what to do about citizens who fight against Australians. If they are overseas, cancel their passports. If in Australia, send them to Port Arthur. Henry is with government backbenchers on this one.
Vale Joan Kirner and Alan Bond. Both notable Australians in very different fields of endeavour, but we are poorer for their passing.
Wonderful to see Mark Murphy and his Blues finally put up a good show against a quality team. Murphy himself starred along with most of the team. Very sad to see Juddie carried off with what looks like it could be a career-ending knee injury. And we cheered Richmond last night as the walloped Freo in Perth. Is there light at the end of the tunnel for two old-fashioned teams of battlers in suburban Melbourne?
On the wider global scene of futball, FIFA President for life, Sep Blatter, has resigned, or plans to resign as the American plod close in. One hopes FIFA finds a honest bloke or woman to clean the stables. Lots of anger at the handball that favoured France in a World Cup. What about the dodgy penalty kick that kept Australia out of the finals of another World Cup?
The rampaging Aussie cricket team belted the Windies in three days, helped by a century on debut by Adam Voges. How such an accomplished player was overlooked for so long is just one of the mysteries of sport at the top level, Let's hope Mr Voges gets a fair suck of the sausage selection in future. The Pestiferous Poms have had a better preparation playing New Zealand and this may make the coming Ashes series worth watching.
“Ewwwww! No! No! No! We ... are staunchly opposed to armpit hair (on women), nose hair, ear hair and toe hair.”
Date: Wednesday, June 03, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
What a muddle. House prices in Bubble territory (in Sydney and 'parts' of Melbourne) and new 'Macroprudential' policies so far failing to stem the tide. Market participants calling for 'more guidance' on RBA's intentions. Business investment heads for the cellar, in mining no surprise but dismal outlook for non-mining investment is creating an enormous disappointment for professional forecasters.
Business (including Henry, please note) say the core problem is lack of competitiveness, but Treasury and RBA continue to use outmoded overly simple 'Keynesian' analysis. (Keynes himself, of course, would not have been so naive.)
Respected journalists say low wage growth and strong employment growth is 'suprising', but both are signs of household fears of recession and loss of precious jobs. With household debt at 150 % of household income, Treasurer advises households to 'borrow and spend'. Household spending behaviour is just another sensible response to concern over loss of jobs.
Budget deficit is out of control, with little realistic chance of stemming growth of Australia's international debt. Extrapolation says this is a dire problem, but leadership has flipped from 'emergency' to generally endorsed 'dullness'. Dollar needs to be lower, practically everyone agrees, but it keeps recovering, especially whenever RBA declines to say more rate cuts are on the agenda. Market participants are ungruntled, deservedly so in Henry's view.
It is a serious clusterf..k, dear readers. What can de done about it?
Here is a set of policies that would rapidly restore competitiveness and produce a highly prosperous Australia.
* Cabinet agrees to take a 20 % cut in its members' salaries until the economy is restored to blooming health. PM and Treasurer urge parliament and the public service to adopt a similar approach and for business leaders to follow cabinet's example. Anyone who adopts this approach gets an AO in the next honour's list. * The government and opposition agree to list budget savings in order of preference, government gets odd numbers picks (1,3,5 etc) and opposition even numbered picks. Treasury keeps score, producing figures on costs and benefits of each policy as objectively as possible, including its best guess of net effect of each pair of budget picks on the net budget trajectory. (If odd and even picks contradict each other, ask the parliamentary budget office to mediate.) Senate endorses these cuts so Australia has a rolled gold return to a healthy budget. * The RBA devises and implements a variable tax on capital inflow to prevent, or at least inhibit, the sharp rise in capital inflow and the exchange rate likely to be produced by the first two policies. * Government and opposition sit down and begin to negotiate a set of improvements to structural policies (including taxation policy) to increase efficiency and competitiveness of Australian industry. If they cannot agree, try the system of alternative efficiency raising picks. (Ask the Productivity Commission to publish its judgments on costs and benefit of each pick and mediate if agreement is not achieved.)
I can already hear the cry of 'You're dreaming Henry!' No doubt I am, but the alternative is years of slow growth, even if outright recession is avoided. Also years of mean, nitpicking cuts to programs, bracket creep in taxation and general unhappiness.
Some effective version of this no doubt outrageous approach would produce a quick and sustained return to strong prosperity. Or perhaps Australians prefer a future of mean, nitpicking mediocrity?
People who are concerned about Australia's economic future are 'clowns, fools and wreckers', says Treasurer Joe Hockey.
Time will tell, Treasurer, but I recall Treasurer Keating snarling at the 'clown' who warned him of the economy off the rails in 1986. Indeed, Mr K said something similar just before his famous 'Banana Republic' backflip.
With Mr Keating the backflip trigger was a record current account deficit (CAD). Did you notice the $3.9 billion CAD Treasurer Hockey?
Saturday Sanity Break, 30 May 2015
Date: Saturday, May 30, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
'Just how bad is the investment outlook in the latest official survey of business capital expenditure? It's very bad, and the sort of number you do see in a recession'.
The penny drops slowly for even great organs of news and opinion like the AFR. Phillip Baker's article in the online version of the fin is headed 'Recession looks likely'. Gor blimey comrades, you heard this message here in August 2013 - 'The recession we did not need to have'.
Mr Baker's article continues: 'As Betashares chief economist David Bassanese [an economist in a betting shop!] said, that might not come to pass, but the weakness in business investment next financial year implied by the latest survey is of the magnitude that is usually associated with a recession.
'The risk now for investors is if some of the business confidence numbers down the track start to turn south in a big way and back up these latest disappointing investment intentions.
'There is no sign at all of the "animal spirits" the Reserve Bank is so keen to see.
'Instead, rather than businesses getting on the front foot and looking to be more confident now the political landscape has settled somewhat, the survey implies they are becoming more gun-shy.
'Spending intentions in the next financial year have fallen more than 20 per cent, while this year is also lower than what economists thought. And just to make sure the whole survey was a truly horrible set of numbers, previous reports were also revised down'. More here.
The great man himself, Ben Bernanke, has been here preaching on how he saved the western world from depression, why governments should provide stimulus now and how good it is that 'macroprudential' policies are being provided by the financial system regulatory organs such as APRA in Australia.
This is the man who followed Greenspan in saying asset bubbles could not be diagnosed or moderated by policy.
'The battle over the banking industry's reputation intensified on Friday, as two of Australia's top regulators took a simultaneous swipe at the culture at the heart of the nation's largest financial institutions.
"When culture is rotten, it often is ordinary Australians who lose their money. Markets might recover, but often people do not," Australian Securities and Investments Commission chairman Greg Medcraft said at the Stockbrokers Association of Australia's annual conference on Friday, in a speech calling on financial institutions to clean up cultural problems.
'The regulator is worried that a crisis of confidence among many members of the public, in the wake of a slew of governance scandals in some of Australia's largest banks over the past year, could weaken the integrity of financial markets. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ANZ Banking Group, National Australia Bank, Macquarie Group, and UBS are among those that have dealt with the fallout from scandals over the past 12 months'.
The wiley old reptile who has presided over much rumoured and confirmed (by arrests) corruption in futball has been reelected. 'Soccer' as we know it here is booming, but we shall not give it real support unless and until the sport is cleansed. A new president and a new board, whose members are mainly honest women and men, would be a sign that corruption will be dealt with. 'Splatter the blatter' could be the rallying cry.
With Mick the Merciless gone, the Blues tried as hard as humanly possible to be competitive against the Swans last night and went down fighting. Buddy was awesome but got such clean and accurate ball that not even the game's best fullback could have held him back. Several Blues fought especially well - Rowe (acting cap'n), Armfield, Bell, Buckley, Carrazzo, Everitt, Henderson (but only workmanlike), Wood, but the real story was that everyone had, as they say, a redhot go.
Some big games to come today, and we celler dweller supporters can only watch and gape at the top sides' strength and skill.
One of the dailies featured several pages on the sheilas at play, and for a while Henry was tempted to suggest that a sheila infusion was just what the Blues need. But, sadly, last night's game was a timely warning. It should however be recorded that one of the great coachs once told Henry that he knew a sheila who was good enough to play in the AFL at the highest level. More here by Blues hero, Ted Hopkins.
Soon there will be test cricket to divert us from the Blues' diabolical loss of form. Up and at 'em, lads, the old enemy deserve a good thrashing, and nothing else will do. Mitch, hope you're back to your scary best.
Image of the week
Courtesy Macca, Herald Sun
Tax avoidance - simply borrow money
Date: Friday, May 29, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
The Economist has delivered a telling attack on debt - which it calls 'The Great Distortion; Tax Free Debt'. With household debt a worrying 150 % of income, and households being urged to borrow and spend, it seems Australia is a prime candidate for tax reform.
The Economist goes on: 'A vast distortion in the world economy is wholly man-made. It is the subsidy that governments give to debt. Half the rich world’s governments allow their citizens to deduct the interest payments on mortgages from their taxable income; almost all countries allow firms to write off payments on their borrowing against taxable earnings. It sounds prosaic, but the cost—and the harm—is immense'.
'In 2007, before the financial crisis led to the slashing of interest rates, the annual value of the forgone tax revenues in Europe was around 3% of GDP—or $510 billion—and in America almost 5% of GDP—or $725 billion.
'This hardly begins to capture the full damage, which is aggravated by the behaviour the tax breaks encourage. People borrow more to buy property than they otherwise would, raising house prices and encouraging over-investment in real estate instead of in assets that create wealth. The tax benefits are largely reaped by the rich, worsening inequality. Corporate financial decisions are motivated by maximising the tax relief on debt instead of the needs of the underlying business'.
The facts are scary.
* 'Economies biased towards debt are more prone to crises, because debt imposes a rigid obligation to repay on vulnerable borrowers, whereas equity is expressly designed to spread losses onto investors. Firms without significant equity buffers are more likely to go broke, banks more likely to topple (see Free Exchange). The dotcom crash in 2000-02 caused losses to shareholdersworth $4 trillion and a mild recession. Leveraged global banks notched up losses of $2 trillion in 2007-10 and the world economy imploded. * 'A [more] neutral tax system would also lead to more efficient choices by savers and lenders. Today 60% of bank lending in rich countries is for mortgages. Without a tax break, people would borrow less to buy houses and banks would lend less against property. Investment in new ideas and businesses that enhance productivity would become relatively more attractive, in turn boosting economic growth. * 'Removing the advantages that debt enjoys would also lead to a fairer system. Relief on mortgage payments is a subsidy that flows to people who need it least: studies show that the richest 20% of American households by income gain the most'.
Policy reform will be hard, but what to do seems obvious. The venerable mag suggests the following: 'The best approach is gradually to phase out tax breaks for debt at the same time as lowering the corporate-tax rate. That would make the policy revenue-neutral, and would also defuse the risk to governments who want to push ahead but fear losing a war waged on tax competition.
'Acting in concert or alone, countries should act soon. When interest rates are low, as now, the sweeteners for debt are smaller and thus easier to remove. When rates rise—as, inevitably, they will—the subsidy will become more valuable. This is the moment to tackle the great debt distortion. There may never be a better chance'.
There is a further, and longer, article in the same edition of The Economist, titled 'The senseless subsidy'. It begins as follows: 'Despite the fact that the world is mired in debt, governments make borrowing costs tax-deductable, cheapening debt and encouraging borrowers to pile on more'.
One hopes policymakers everywhere have read these two articles. If you are a policymaker or can influence policymakers, please draw a relevant person's attention to the May 16-22 2015 edition of The Economist.
Australia`s Innovative Manufacturing
Date: Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
MEDIA RELEASE Melbourne – 26 May 2015
New Industry-led centre to help transform Australian manufacturing
An ambitious venture to transform Australian industry has been announced today by the Hon Ian Macfarlane MP, Minister for Industry and Science. The venture is a new Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) designed to accelerate Australia’s transition into high value, knowledge-based manufacturing. The new Innovative Manufacturing CRC (IMCRC) brings together a powerful coalition of businesses and researchers. It will have its head office in Melbourne and operate from nodes around the nation.
The IMCRC is a collaboration of: • 14 initial manufacturing companies and end users who are already global, innovative and prepared to innovate further including many participants from the successful Advanced Manufacturing CRC • 4 peak industry bodies that will help recruit over 300 additional SMEs as ‘Portal Partners’ • 16 Australian universities, CSIRO and the Fraunhofer Institute for Laser Technology
IMCRC Interim Chair, Dr Peter Jonson, said, “The decision to establish the IMCRC is visionary and provides an exciting opportunity for Australian manufacturing. We shall be part of a powerful movement to transform the future of Australian manufacturing. Key members of this exciting cooperative venture will hit the ground running to help transform manufacturing in Australia. Ten major industry-research cooperative projects are ready to start just as soon as necessary formalities are finalised”.
Dr Jonson said that the Commonwealth’s grant of $40 million would be matched by more than $210 million of cash and in-kind contributions from industry, research institutions and State governments that will lift the total budget to over $250 million to seed the process of transformation.
The IMCRC’s four research themes will deliver high-impact programmes of collaborative research to intersect with the challenges of Australian industry. The IMCRC will focus on the needs of industry, which will be met by emerging technologies delivered by Australia’s finest researchers. IMCRC’s multidisciplinary research programmes will provide significant benefits to our participants and create important insights to be shared with our wider industry ‘Portal Partner’ community.
IMCRC's research programmes will be concentrated on the high-growth sectors recently identified in the Commonwealth Government's ‘Industry Innovation and Competitiveness Agenda’.The IMCRC will work in close cooperation with the new Industry Growth Centres (IGCs) to help companies build the innovative capacity to develop market-ready opportunities. Our participating peak industry ‘Portal Organisations’ will help facilitate the mission of the IGCs to better understand the needs of industry and to inform policy recommendations for government to improve Australia’s competitiveness.
Professor Robin Batterham, former Chief Scientist of Australia and a member of IMCRC’s Interim Board said, “Manufacturing in Australia has a bright future. It will involve change and it will involve innovation. It is about more science but primarily it is about more innovation – that is, when something new hits the market of end users prepared to pay real money. The IMCRC will be focussed on helping companies create new products and new businesses, assisted by an experienced team of researchers including scientists, engineers and business innovation experts.”
Dr David Charles, Chair of the Advanced Manufacturing CRC said,“the IMCRC is well positioned to build on the successes of the AMCRC and to contribute through collaboration to the change process both in industry and associated research organisations.”
The IMCRC’s ‘Industry Portal’ will undertake the important task of ensuring the diffusion of the new manufacturing paradigm to a wide range of small to medium sized Australian companies who have the potential to become Australia’s ‘Hidden Manufacturing Champions’. Through its ‘Industry Transformation’ research theme, the IMCRC will be giving high priority to putting in place the conditions needed for success. The support of the IMCRC’s strong ‘Portal Organisations’, the Australian Industry Group, Australian Manufacturing Technology Institute Limited, prefabAUS and STC Australia, will be vital in this regard.
The IMCRC includes a focus in the Medical Technologies & Pharmaceuticals growth sector with a number of highly innovative programmes of research already well advanced in their planning.
As one example of the many exciting programmes to be undertaken, Professor Peter Choong from the Department of Surgery at St Vincent’s Hospital Melbourne will lead a programme that brings together advanced techniques in robot assisted surgery and additive manufacturing to give patients with limb cancer new hope for better survival while saving limbs.
Professor Choong said, “this collaboration between the University of Melbourne, RMIT University, University of Wollongong, industry partners Stryker and Anatomics and the CSIRO focuses on the delivery of just-in-time patient specific implants by developing new ways to acquire, manipulate and transfer data related to patient tumours to facilitate the role of robots in surgery, and 3D printing of limb parts. This programme will push the boundaries of personalised patient care in manufacturing and treatment”.
Further details on the many exciting programmes to be launched soon are available at the IMCRC website www.imcrc.org
The speech by Minister of Industry and Science Ian Macfarlane that announced the IMCRC is available here.
Saturday Sanity Break, 23 May 2015
Date: Saturday, May 23, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
'Consistency is the sign of a middle class mind'. This is one of Henry's favourite aphorisms, and today Paul Kelly points out that Tony Abbott lacks consistency. 'Despite some relieving polls the flaw in the Abbott government’s reinvention project is obvious and will need to be confronted — it is the risk of confusion about the beliefs, consistency and principles that constitute Tony Abbott and his government.
'The beauty of political retreat is the reward of popularity. While necessary, it remains an overrated quality.
'The Abbott government will need time to sort a political reconciliation between its brutal 2014 budget measures and its bullish 2015 economic messages'.
Henry once shared a platform with Tony Abbott, who was launching Henry's editor's book Great Crises of Capitalism.
After the formalities were over, we conducted a seminar on economics that went on for 40 minutes, by tacit agreement each taking turns to respond to questions.
Mr Abbott showed on that occasion a strong grasp of economics and a consistent conservative orientation. Every prime minister takes time to find his essential voice when thrust into the fierce test that is that of governing a nation.
Henry agrees with Paul Kelly that Tony Abbott has to reconcile the very different approaches in the 2014 and 2015 budgets.
The view in the Thornton household is that not enough thought has gone into policies, especially into the 2014 budget, and that the Abbott government has shown a tendency to jump onto policies without sufficient thought. This is a constitutional weakness of anyone with a quick mind. Someone close to Henry once advised him to put his brightest ideas into a loop through his brain before offering them to the waiting world.
In a speech to the Fabian Society on 21 February 1940, Maynard Keynes is reported to have said: 'I am a highly teachable person. I learn from criticism and before now have laid myself open to the reproof that my second thoughts are often better then my first thoughts - which is an indication, some people think, of a dangerous instability of character'.
The Blues got belted by Geelong last night despite what an ever-optimistic Henry thought were glimmers of what economists would call 'green shoots'. Some of Geelong's stars were held, and one especially notes the wonderful work of Ed Curnow, but not everyone on the team showed the same resolve.
Mick the Merciless is annoyed because his overseers used the word 'rebuilding' in discussing strategic intent, and one wonders how long this gulf can remain. Henry if invited to take over would tell the lads to go out and have fun while playing like Ed Curnow, or the team that came from behind to win the premiership when 10 goals behind Collingwood at half time in the famous Grand Final.
More exciting games to watch in the rest of the weekend, but somehow Henry just cannot summon the energy.
In cricket, 'Watto' has decided to put his family ahead to the team, on the advice of coach Lehman. Good on yer, Watto, not doing this is one of the classic mistakes made by the dreary blokes with no family worth speaking on when their business career is over.
Dear readers, have you followed the fate of the old gaffers in the UK who pulled off an historic jewel heist? Sadly they have been nabbed but as the court case develops we may well learn that in the name of reform their pensions or superannuation balances have been slashed.
Image of the week
Growth through Innovation and Collaboration
Date: Wednesday, May 20, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
The Hon Ian Macfarlane, Minister for Industry and Science, yesterday announced: 'An updated and more targeted Cooperative Research Centres Programme will build stronger connections between research and industry, as the Australian Government implements the findings of the expert review into the delivery of the CRC Programme'.
'An updated and more targeted Cooperative Research Centres Programme will build stronger connections between research and industry, as the Australian Government implements the findings of the expert review into the delivery of the CRC Programme.
'Minister for Industry and Science Ian Macfarlane said a key finding of the review was that the CRC Programme was valuable and effective, but had scope for improvement.
“Australia’s CRCs have a notable record of facilitating research and development in a range of areas by bringing together researchers, industry and the community,” Mr Macfarlane said.
'The Australian Government has committed more than $731 million to the CRC programme this year and over the forward estimates. Since 1991, the Government has committed more than $4 billion to the programme and has supported 209 CRCs on a merit-based system.
“CRCs have made an important contribution to diverse and high quality research, but more can be done to ensure the valuable research done by CRCs is translated into practical and commercial outcomes that not only benefit the Australian community, but also have the best opportunities for international applications.
“The review by prominent lawyer and innovation expert Mr David Miles AM found that the programme should continue with a new, more targeted focus to meet the Government’s priority of putting science at the centre of industry policy, according to a review released today.
“CRCs have delivered significant economic, environmental and social benefits over the last 25 years by successfully linking researchers with end users, but it was time to review the programme’s goals and structures to ensure Australia gets the best return on our significant investment in science and research.
“This comprehensive, high quality review has developed 18 practical recommendations that the Government will now implement.
“These recommendations put industry front and centre in the CRC Programme, ensuring that CRCs focus on improving the productivity of all Australian industries, establishing industry-led research, and improving research commercialisation.
“As part of this, CRCs will be the engine of innovative research to support the work of the five industry Growth Centres established under the Government’s Industry Innovation and Competitiveness Agenda.
“This comprehensive approach, utilising the full range of Australia’s research resources, will create new opportunities and jobs in sectors where we are globally competitive, developing and commercialising ideas identified by the Growth Centres, and taking them to markets.
“Strengthening the CRCs’ ability to connect researchers and industry in these sectors will ensure that our research investment drives a competitive and forward-looking economy.
“The report also recommends improving smaller organisations’ access to the programme by establishing an additional stream, CRC Projects or CRC-Ps, for short-term industry-led research designed to benefit small and medium enterprises in particular.”
'A new CRC Advisory Committee will be appointed to implement the recommendations of the review and to oversee the revised CRC Programme. Distinguished business leader Mr Philip Clark AM will Chair the group, working with Dr Megan Clark AC, Dr Michele Allan and Australia’s Chief Scientist, Professor Ian Chubb AC.
“An advisory committee has been a key part of the CRC Programme since it began 25 years ago. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the outgoing committee for the work it has undertaken, its high quality advice and the outstanding service of its members. The new committee will build on this work and drive the revised programme forward,” Mr Macfarlane said.
'The CRC Programme Review can be found at www.business.gov.au/CRC-Review and the Department of Industry and Science will commence consultations on new CRC guidelines shortly'.
Saturday Sanity Break, 16 May 2015
Date: Saturday, May 16, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
Terrible situation with Asylum Seekers to Australia's north. Much worse than that for the Asylum seekers who try to get to Australia - we pick them up, feed them and house them, provide medical attention, etc, and find them a new home or send them back to their old home. Surely now the time is right for a regional solution in which the Australian approach is adopted by all and there is similar treatment including serious attempts to put the people trading on human misery out of business.
The budget seems to have been well received though alleged descriptions of 'double dippers' for parental leave schemes as 'rorters' or 'fraudsters' was a welcome diversion for the opposition. The underlying issue here is whether one as a minister is entitled to obey 'the rules' or do what is morally preferable. But as Henry's grandad used say, people in glass houses should forebare to throw stones, obviously.
The government's budget seems based on two propositions, one unstated. Unstated is the possibility that commodity prices might recover, although there is also the possibility that they fall further. Assuming the tougher elements of budget 2014 do not get through the Senate, and any new attempts to remove goodies this time around are blocked, the hope of a return to budget balance is based on 'bracket creep', the automatic tendency of taxes to rise as inflation raises incomes.
Labor, however, in the dulcet tones of Bill Shorten, propose vast new spending plans without saying how these plans will be consistent with a return to budget balance, let alone surplus. One is forced to conclude that Labor's big spending on the national credit card is unaltered and that the opposition is uncaring about any solution but 'soak the rich', meaning anyone (not a politician or a senior public official) who has accumulated sufficient assets to enjoy a decent retirement. This would be easier to cop if Labor promised it would tax pensions of Pollies and public servants at the same rate as folk not in the receipt of pensions funded by taxpayers.
We also present this week a lovely article on 'Family Tax Equity' by Henry's political correspondant Gary Scarrabelotti.
'Think equity. If a middle class member of a two-income family that already benefits from two tax-free thresholds (or $36,000 tax free income per annum) gets paid welfare to go to work, then why can’t a single-income family split its income and have the same tax-free income while saving the state the cost of childcare?
'I mean, you’d have to be dim not to get the point. And I don’t think that dim people lead the government. Oh, sure, they made some almighty blues in 2014, but they want to be re-elected. That’s why I’m confident that, in 2016, Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison will deliver on a fairer tax treatment for single-income families'.
But Graham Richardson has taken the prize this week, with his brilliant satire on the 'double dipping' issue and the 'entitlement' mindset.
'How could I have been so bitterly critical day after day, week after week, column after column of such a good and decent man?
'God bless the Treasurer, who not only has a deep, firm commitment to middle-class welfare but a fundamental acceptance of the need for upper-class welfare as well.
... 'As a sole trader, with a turnover of less than $2 million a year, unincorporated but having an ABN, I am a big winner. Until June 2017 I can deduct assets that cost less than $20,000. I can replace the family’s nine-year-old Toyota Aurion with a three-year-old version as long as it is used in the business. A new computer and a range of new office equipment also beckon. No wonder Gerry Harvey has a spring in his step.
'I will have no trouble in providing the tax man with invoices for $40,000-$60,000 in that period. For the next two years I will get an extra $20,000-$30,000 in the hand — but wait, there’s more. I am eligible as well for a tax offset capped at $1000 a year for the next couple of years.
'While I earn less than $2m, I would be less than truthful if I didn’t concede that I earn a little more than the average citizen.
'Upper-class welfare does not end with me, though. There are well to do couples earning up to $400,000 a year out there who will happily accept government handouts for childcare'.
Gor blimey, comrades, maybe Henry can get his snout in this trough.
Image: Courtesy of the photographer and Sydney Theatre Company - Boys will be Boys
Image of the week.
Courtesy The Oz
Saturday Sanity Break, 9 May 2015
Date: Saturday, May 09, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
RBA drops forecasts, what a shock! Australia's budget is in the danger zone and our cost structures are way over any sustainable level. Australian peoples' greatest economic concern is becoming unemployed and there is great apprehension about next week's budget. Most people are fearful it will remove some benefit, while a few of us are worried a compelling path to surplus will not be demonstrated. Failure to drop forecasts, now that would have been a real shock.
Peter Costello has reminded us that he produced ten surplusses in a row. His budgets were helped by the biggest mining bonanza the world has ever seen. The only other Australian treasurer to produce a budget surplus since the war, Paul Keating, produced his surpluses because he was especially well advised and had the force of personality to do something about it.
Joe Hockey has identified the 'Age of entitlement'. Grace Collier today sums up the attitude of a prototypical Aussie battler so well. 'Oops, I have found myself with no job, no money, 15 children, an ice habit and three of my teenagers are involved with Islamic State, what is the government going to do about it?'
Collier continues: 'I wish our leaders had some sense of how people outside the Canberra bubble feel. Our small population has to support three layers of expensive government. Substandard people are able to enter politics or the public service and suck huge amounts of money out of the system for themselves at levels they’d never earn in the real world.
'Politicians can retire early and live out their days on a pension that requires between $5 million and $6m apiece, an amount even an extraordinary achiever would struggle to amass in a lifetime. Our Prime Minister earns significantly more than the US President. An affluent public service is addicted to annual wage increases of 4 per cent.
The big economic news this week was a global bond market rout which sent money market yields sharply higher and equities prices lower. Global oil prices have lifted. Signs of long awaited increases of US wage inflation seem to have allayed fears of extreme deflation. Sharemarkets were propped up by so-called 'Quantitative easing' (QE), near zero cash rates and low bond yields. The US Fed has yet to test the waters of a gradual return to sensible cash rates. The RBA is participating in the 'currency wars', spending ammunition (rate cut opportunity) and credibility. US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said this week, 'there are potential dangers in all this'.
The editor-in-chief of the AFR, Michael Stutchbury, yesterday in a long article in his newspaper's Review section looked at our post-1970 booms and busts. His sobering conclusions should be the BBQ stopper of the year.
'The history of Australia's great prosperity is also the story of how this commodity-exporting and capital-importing economy at the foot of Asia has ridden the two great industrialisations of the past half-century, Japan and then China, now our two biggest export markets. Both booms helped make us rich. But they also politically overinflated our expectations before running into global crises - the stagflation of the 1970s and the extended financial crisis from 2008. Once again, Australia's economy is underperforming our closest developed-world peers. Our jobless rate is back above America's; our budget deficit is bigger than New Zealand's, our economic growth last year was below Britain's'.
Clearly what is needed is some far-reaching economic reform. Every responsible economist, notably this week ANU's Warwick McKibbin, has pointed out that continued falls of Australian cash interest rates are not the answer to the heavy headwinds our economy is battling. The only sustainable approach is a combination of a credible approach to return the budget to surplus and widespread economic reform.
We hope that Tuesday's budget will deliver a credible budget and we offer a plan for economic reform here. We sincerely hope that our government can somehow muster the courage and communication skill to pull off this difficult double. For all our sakes, we fervently hope that we do not have to wait for a nasty crisis to get on with highly desirable economic reforms.
And did Smokin' Joe really tell us to borrow money and spend? Has nobody told him that household debt is 150 % of household income and when interest rates rise many households will be in deep doo doo? Not to mention the massive government deficit. We are a country already deep in debt, and global interest rates must begin to rise soon.
Mad Max is back! And opens soon on a big screen near you. Here is a trailer. Henry's reviewer, Bert Thornton, rated this movie highly - 'road rage in the outback; not to be missed'
The surprise win by the Conservatives in the UK has shown that the polls can be horribly wrong. Just maybe this is happening here. Say you're voting Labor to keep the fire to the feet of the gummint.
A weekend of surprises in the footy, especially GWS toppling Hawthorn, but also the Saints beating the Bullies after the greatest turnaround in living memory. Most of the rest went as expected and Henry will not be watching on Sunday when the Blues take on Brissie.
And did Smokin' Joe really tell us to borrow money and spend? Has nobody told him that household debt is 150 % of household income and when interest rates rise many households will be in deep doo doo?
Image of the week
Courtesy The Oz
Date: Thursday, May 07, 2015
Author: Henry Thornton
Henry's favourite fund manager (FFM) concluded a fine presentation two days ago by saying: 'We are still in a sweet spot for equities'. This was despite a conclusion that it is too soon to load up again with resource stocks and banks were still ok despite Westpac's slight fall from grace as Mr Hartzer settles in. And the possibility of Australia slipping into recession.
That is the summary, dear readers, and it supports Mrs Thornton's relative optimism rather than Henry's relative pessimism. There is a very interesting question that came at the end of the meeting that I shall leave until the end, but it deserves to be answered, or at least pondered.
Henry's FFM divided his presentation into five themes, and my report follows that format. There was what Henry regards as a proper focus on measures of optimism and pessimism, including some measures Henry had not seen before.
1. The Millenials.
These are young people who became adults at the start of the new century and who so far have had a poor suck of the sauce bottle. A story was told of a member of the FFM's firm who once attended a reunion at his old school of Eton. Peole were in tents according to their year of attendance by decade. Those in the 1920s were partying like there was no tomorrow. Those from the 1930s wore somber suits and frowned a lot. Etc, etc,
Given the ages of all concerned, this story was apocryphal but it struck a chord with the largely baby boomer audience.
Millenials in the USA went from a 79 % employment rate in 2007 to below 74 % in 2009 and recovery has been slow, to only 76 % in 2014. Student loan delinquencies have risen sharply since the GFC and are now hovering at 55 %. Millenials who are employed are clinging to their low-paid jobs and keep most of their modest assets in cash .Net household formation fell sharply in 2007 but has just shot up - a sign of better times ahead perhaps.
The 'Economic Surprise' Diffusion Index (below) showed positive surprises in 2014 in the USA and negative surprises in Europe. This pattern has been reversed in 2015 as the US economy slows seemingly almost to a halt and the Eurozone shows some recovery.
The bottom line? 'Households are not responding in the traditional fashion to jobs, oil price, low interest rates. This means the Fed in on hold (possibly for longer than anyone thinks.
2. Australia living beyond its means.
The FFM asked if anyone present could remember very high interest rates in Australia. Only the baby boomers could - 1992/3 when even the trams in melbourne were touting for business, which Henry felt was of sufficient interest to so inform Bernie Fraser.)
We were shown a graph in which debt as a ratio to household disposable income had flattened at 150 %. A similar statistic for the USA had also reached this fuigure but had fallen to around 100 % since its peak. We were invited to imagine what would happen if interest rates doubled from current levels.
Another storm warning was the ratio of dwelling prices to household income, a monsterous 10x in Sydney compared to London and New York at 6x. Another graph showed Real Median house prices in Melbourne twice the level of Melbourne prices in 1890, which was followed by the great depression of the 1890s.
We were then shown a few graphs from the Intergenerational Report (IRG) that quite blunted appetites for the fine lunch provided.
We were presented with a list of 'Which promises will be broken' by governments'. This had ten items on it, starting with 'Aged and Service pensions' and ending with 'Infrastructure Spend'. Henry refused a second glass of Shiraz.
The bottom line? 'Tough times ahead structurally as well as cyclically', or 'Recession likely'. This means interest rates and government bond yields likely to head lower and possibly for an extended period of time.
3. Oils aint oils.
The price of crude oil has returned almost to its level in late 2008. Crude oil in storage has been rising since 2004 and recently took a massive leap upwards. A measure of speculative long position was rising from 2003 but has just plunged, suggesting perhaps that the oil bulls have just rolled over.
Bottom line? The very best oil companies may be worth buying soon, but not yet.
We were told there were some 'green shoots' emerging. Greek risk is so far contained and there is a '$1.2 trillion liquidity pump from the ECB.
Bottom line? The Eurozone situation is 'supportative of risk asset generally', and the USA QE material in the next section will show why this is a supportable conclusion.
Our host had a lot of fun with a photo of the Greek Finance Minister as Mr Spock.
5. The search for yield.
We first looked at some horrendous graphs of government bond yields from the 1700s until now. In the USA and the UK these yields peaked at around 16 % in the early 1970s and are now not much above zero. In Japan and Switzerland, current bond yields are around zero, in the latter case negative. 'how can they be negative?' asked a participant. 'You pay the government to mind your money for a decade, say, and there is a chance you will get most of it back', said an old reptile. 'Tell that to the Greeks' was the obvious reposte.
A nice graph showed how the USA Fed Funds rate has led the bond rate down from the early 1990s but showed just how abberant is the 6 year near zero rate. Another dramatic graph (below) showed how the series of 'Quantitative easings (QEs) have been strongly correlated with successive surges in the US S&P index.
Whether stocks will continue to rise if the US Fed merely delays rate rises is one of the great questions for investment managers and their (nervous) baby boomer clients.
Bottom line? 'Quality high income producing securities remain attractive relative to alternatives and inflation'.
Readers must draw their own conclusion from this and similar presentations. Henry's FFM made no recommendations and neither does Henry. Seek independant advice from a licenced financial planner, provided he is not using your money to play churn and burn.
Henry shall remain nervously long equities - mainly in stocks with good yields - while thanking his lucky stars that the Thornton family put a fair proportion of equities offshore when the Aussie dollar was $US 1.05.
But a final question remains unanswered. 'The Future Fund has over $100 billion of investments and holds only 10 % or so in australian equities. What does Peter Costello know that we do not?