• Fiona Prior

Sunday Sanity Break, 4 June 2017 - Setbacks and headwinds


Manchester, now London X3, it's hotting up dear readers. We offer our deepest sympathy for their troubles ...

President Trump has decided to walk away from the Paris accord on climate change, despite the commitments not being binding and simple enough that even Australia's skeptical government is achieving useful emission reductions. Partly due to subdued growth, comrades, also rising power prices. China has palled up with the Eurozone, and has assumed global leadership. Mr Trump's friends in Pittsburgh will continue to suffer twenty-century blues, reinforced by their president's decision to renounce his de facto leadership of the world.

'Better times to come' says Treasurer Morrison three weeks ago. Now he has realised 'There are risks' despite his Secretary John Fraser's reliance on the so-called 'Trade cycle'. It never was a cycle, Secretary Fraser, just ups and downs of variable size as befits the chaotic systems that are the international and domestic economies. Due to the various 'Headwinds' illustrated below, economies are in a subdued growth era. Look to Japan, Secretary Fraser. After a great crash in asset prices in late 1989, it has experienced nearly three decades of subdued growth. Look to the US and global economies in the 1930s, Secretary Fraser, after the great crash in asset prices in late 1929.

Global credit continues to grow, and excess credit has lead to great crashes in Australian and global history - especially when allied with gross rises in asset prices. Australia's households now have credit at 1.89 times household income. US interest rates are rising and for the time being this is the global trend. Every 25 point rise in US cash rates will before long pass into Australian household budgets. 100 basis points and bankruptcies will become a major factor in the Australian economy. 'Better times to come?' Treasurer Morrison. I think not, and even some economists still in captivity are beginning to agree.

Kulture

An economic culture of hard work, saving and self-sufficiency would serve Australia, and the world, far better than the current culture of rampant consumerism.

Governments have a responsibility in this area. A burst of consumerism after the privation of two world wars and a great depression can be understood and indeed welcomed. Continuing promoting consumerism in a world bedevilled by living beyond its means with gross species loss, widespread pollution, climate change, probably dangerous climate change, is just nuts.

Fiona Prior will shortly provide (I hope) some offsetting cheer with a review of yet another stunning cultural event.

(* Hoping to cheer up Henry after his eloquent words about our world's tragic loss of lives and the unsustainable lifestyles of many, here is a peek at Sydney's Vivid lights.)

The sporting world.

New South Wales' glorious win in State of Origen Rugby League was one of the best footy games Henry has watched. The weekend semi-final in Netball, with a last second goal putting the Magpies ahead by one point, was sadly not watched by Henry, but from all events was a corker. Australia vrs Saudi Arabia in futball in the week ahead will be another stirring encounter.

In AFLM, Hawthorn's greatest flogging since the 1950s, with only 3 points scored by half time, was proof, if proof was needed, that the Hawks are in reality shot ducks. Even Caaaarlton!, having a by this weekend, may be competitive when they play the shot ducks shortly. Geelong overcame flag favourite Adelaide, and Richmond

flogged North Melbourne, the hoppies clearly suffering fatigue after their clash with the Blues last week.

Image of the week - Headwinds (G7 + China)

More explanation here.


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