Sunday Sanity Break, 9 June 2019 – economy slowing, sporting results rising

Now we have unambiguous evidence of a slowing economy. As Labor’s Jim Chambers puts it, three per capita quarters of falling GDP is the recession we did not perhaps need to have. In the March quarter, GDP (not GDP per capita) rose by only 0.4 %, 0.2 due to government spending and 0.2 exports. Now there are signs of slowing job growth. Wages growth and inflation are very low. The RBA has cut interest rates and hints that there is at least one more rate cut in the works.

Even two rate cuts in Australia will not solve the Aussie recession. Bring forward tax cuts, Josh, spend more on infrastructure and otherwise strive to stay on track for a budget surplus.

With respect to Aussie fiscal and monetary policy, I feel like the Irishman who asked if this was the road to Dublin. ‘If I were you I would not be starting from here' was the answer. In the period of reasonably strong growth cash interest rates should have been raised and government spending should have been restrained. But despite our awkward starting point, now heavy lifting will be required when stimulus is needed.

As someone said. how this is handled will determine the future of Scomo Morrison.

Kulture

Fiona Prior misses the magic of J R R Tolkien’s Middle-earth but finds Dome Karukoski’s biopic of his life ‘Tolkien’ well worth the dip into reality. More here.

Sporting life.

Do you remember the well established theorem that a nation’s economy and its sporting success are negatively correlated?

Wow, North Melbourne fires its coach and the shinbones win the next two games. Caaarlton! fires its coach and the Blues beat Brisbane, until the siren sounded number 5 on the AFL ladder. I was unhappy that coach Bolton was fired but the way the team played yesterday was a marvellous vindication of the club’s administration

But there are two more impressive results on the world stage in the week just over. Ash Barty won the French open on dusty clay 6-1 and 6-3, after surviving a series of form reversals in her semi-final. A glorious victory for the first time for an Aussie since Margaret Court ( or was it Evonne Goolagong?) in 1973!

Then Smith, Stark and Coulter-Nile beat an aggressive West Indies outfit who should have wiped the pitch with us given the failure of all but one of our designated batters. Naked aggression will get you somewhere, Windies but not all the way. Pakistan beat the Pommy bas**rds who were gearing up to boo loudly at Smith and Warner when we meet them in the World Cup of cricket.

And the Matildas are about to begin the World Cup of Futball, or Soccer as we prefer to call it. ‘Go, girls, go!” is all the advice Henry can offer.

Meanwhile, Israel Folau remains on the side despite being Australia’s best Rugby player. Press reports suggest he is seeking up to $10 million. Should this be anywhere his winnings, I have a suggestion for Caaaarlton!. Offer Israel the opportunity to return to Aussie rules, as a salary of $1 a year. Provide rigorous pre 2020 season training and turn him loose with no fear of upsetting the other players. If he becomes a champion player what a story it would be.