Infection, recession, remission
Updated: May 1
It has already been a bugger of a year, and we are still in the early autumn season. The VIRUS is decimating Italy and spreading quickly. President Trump looked rattled on TV this morning, while his Veep, Mr Pence, stood behind him and tried to scare him with very angry eyes. The Veep was put in charge by the Pres, who now he knows it is serious has apparently put himself in charge again.
But who knows just how bad the winter of 2020 is going to be. Today's press tells us the three medical experts from Brisbane say that have a new anti-virus thing that is about to be tested on mice, and then presumably humans. No doubt the US mob who check and have to approve these things will hold it up until an American solution is found. If Mr Trump's latest performance is any guide he seems out of his depth.
Lots of water to go under the bridge, but let's hope the 'spreading effect' of proper patient management minimises and that our boys win a Nobel prize by saving who knows how many people. The graph is meant to show how early suppression effects will spread the load and make the smaller peak manageable. See the graphs below.
ADVICE ON PLAGUE FIGHTING BELOW
The markets have crunched down well into the scary zone. While US and Australian equities boomed on Friday - with a 12 % turnround here, no one should panic or decide the down moves are over. Henry has been conservatively positioned for some time and in due course hopes to pick up some bargains. But take care, gentle readers, and find an advisor who you will trust to help.
PM speaks out
Scomo has had a substantial improvement in his handling in the VIRUS matter than in the Bushfire fiasco. A generous first round of help to pensioners, other welfare recipients and help for small business (with cash to keep apprentices employed) should all help. The surplus is temporarily on the shelf and the budget is likely to make it worse. Recession seems all but certain to Henry but some time with 'Limited rations' (Governor Phillip's answer when ships from the Second Fleet failed to show up on time) and limited time at big sporting events may have some benefits.
But do not feel too happy, gentle readers. Global recession is the likely outcome, and if Australia misses it will be by a whisker.
The Cardinal's lawyers seems to have had a good couple of days and one hopes he is shortly to be released from goal. In Henry's view, the Cardinal (a) had no time to do what he has been goaled for and (b) even if he had any chance to misbehave he never would have done it. (Henry is not a catholic, incidentally.)
Footy without live spectators
Now we need Caaaarlton! to beat Richmond with no audience except on TV to feel that the new no live audience system is well worthwhile. (Caaaarlton!'s brains trust believes that the Tigers only try when there is a large crowd to cheer them on.)
ADVICE ON PLAGUE FIGHTING