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  • Writer's picturePete Jonson

Covid-19's contribution to global development

Updated: Jun 14, 2020

Major recessions everywhere - worse than Great Recession of 1990-91, perhaps approaching damage of the Great Depression.

The story suggests that most recessions produce bigger, more interventions with people looking to government for leadership and answers'. (Paul Kelly, 20/5/20)

Massive budget deficits everywhere, massive government debts to limit future spending.

Share markets up in the USA despite 30 million unemployed - opposite of past experience. Que?

(US Fed shovelling money out at a great rate, boosting share prices.)

(The longer the shovelling goes, the bigger the eventual crash.)

USA stock market closed for several weeks, far longer than other (very short) periods.

Great reduction in global travel, many borders closed. Major airlines saying it will be three years to restore 2019 levels.

Many people working from home, may become popular, reducing car and public transport, far more efficient for workers at home.

Several years until return to 'full employment', many people will work less if at all in future.

Different responses, unclear yet which were best - Herd immunity (Sweden), suppression (Australia), eradication (New Zealand), Denial (China at first), Weak and delayed suppression (USA, UK, Italy, France, ....)

'The frustration for the Chinese is that everyone knows they got this terribly wrong. No amount of twisting, turning or spinning will allow them to escape responsibility'. (Richo, 20 /5/20)

China's aggression toward Australia will force Australia to diversify its trade, which will within 5 years make our economy far sounder. May be pretty tough until diversification in place but our economy will be far stronger when that is done.

And I feel moved to add a suggestion that was neatly proposed several weeks later, with thanks to Christopher Joyce - Deglobalisation and Decoupling.


Roger Kimball in Quadrant for May 2020 provides a more optomistic account subtitled 'A Failure of Nerve'.

The key paragraph, near the end, says:

'Let me pause to acknowledge that COVID-19 is a dangerous virus - especially for the elderly and infirm. ... 'Nobody says COVID-19 is not real, that it can't tax hospitals or kill people, especially if they are over 75 or have co-morbidities. But right now the best CURRENT projections is for 61,000 US deaths. That was the 2017 flu season. Why have we shut the country?.

Dear Readers. Pete Jonson would welcome ideas for this blog. Have I missed anything important (probably); is there anything stupid (almost certainly) ; is there a summary judgement - eg ,'The world will soon return to 2019 situation'; or 'The world will be changed forever ... please specify'.

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